Pace Forecast: Even

Pace/Position Angle:
Perth’s 2m configuration tends to favour hold-up runners more than prominently ridden types, particularly when the pace isn’t strong. In this instance, with an even pace predicted, horses needing a strong tempo (such as Cuban Cigar) may find things unfolding against them, whereas those that travel well and can sit handy or stalk the pace (like Just Dottie, Simple Star) may be better suited.


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Strongest Contenders

JUST DOTTIE – Rating: 113
Sean Bowen’s mount is 2 from 2 over C&D this spring and boasts 4 career Perth wins, including a solid latest success over Mack The Man. 13L winner prior to that also at Perth. Strong travelling hold-up mare who picks up well late. Sean Bowen has a 30% strike rate at the track. Solid claims to complete the hat-trick if the race sets up for her again.

THE LAST CLOUD (IRE) – Rating: 115
Lightly raced 5-y-o who won a maiden here easily last month, travelling strongly and quickening clear. Stays further and gives the impression there’s more to come now handicapping. Brian Hughes has a 38% strike rate when riding hurdling favourites, and this one is progressive. The one unknown is how he’ll cope off 108 in a handicap for the first time.

HEART ABOVE – Rating: 118
Runner-up at Kelso over further latest and two earlier wins (including novice here) show he handles this trip. Stays well, travels smoothly, and has a reliable profile for the grade. Trainer in good form and has won with a similar type here in the past. Needs to be delivered late and so pace set-up is important – a fair run race suits him well.


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Main Dangers

SIMPLE STAR (IRE) – Rating: 117
Races freely but has improved since a wind op. Gained a win here earlier in the season and latest run at Kelso was solid in a small field. Still unexposed at 2m in this sort of company and may get a better pace to settle behind today. Timeform flags him for improvement. The pace setup likely suits and a lively each-way player.

MACK THE MAN (IRE) – Rating: 115
Veteran with a mixed profile, but kept on well when runner-up to Just Dottie last time (noted front-runner). That form has substance, though he doesn’t always back up a good run. Slight stamina concern if pace collapses late.

TRAILBLAZER – Rating: 116
Has form figures of 4312 from last four and seems rejuvenated this spring. Third at Sedgefield last time was respectable and he’s posted two solid efforts over C&D this year. On a fair mark and seems adaptable to conditions.


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Interesting Outsiders / Watch List

LEOPOLDS ROCK (IRE) – Rating: 114§
Returning from a 606-day layoff for a new yard. Placed all three starts in 2023 and had some ability but is not entirely straightforward (Timeform: not one to trust). Market signals crucial.

BISHOP HILL (IRE) – Rating: 109
Often travels well but finishes weakly; typical bridle horse with limited resolution. Needs delivering very late. Not dismissed for a minor placing, but risky.

CUBAN CIGAR – Rating: 120
Has ability but tends to race too far back and needs the race to fall apart. With pace predicted even, may again finish too late. Market moves worth watching as he’s had a wind op and can pop up at a price when things fall right.


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Trainer Watch / Notable Trends

Sean Bowen (Just Dottie): 30% strike rate at Perth and 47% when favourite over hurdles.

No obvious trainer has won this race twice in the last five runnings.

Age profile: Last five winners aged 5 to 6 (four of them), and all rated 90–112.



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Marks Out of Ten (based on adjusted ratings, profile strength, suitability)

Horse Mark /10

Heart Above 8.5
Just Dottie 8
The Last Cloud 8
Simple Star 7.5
Mack The Man 7
Trailblazer 6.5
Bishop Hill 5.5
Cuban Cigar 5.5
Leopolds Rock 5
Hourless 4
Gemini Man 3.5
Coventry 3


Note: Market watch advised for Leopolds Rock (606-day absence), and possibly Simple Star and The Last Cloud – both unexposed types with scope to improve again.


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Each-Way Angles (12 runners)

Simple Star and Trailblazer appeal most for E/W purposes, both solid C&D performers with reliable profiles and likely to be in the mix if the principals underperform.


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Private Tissue (100% book)

Heart Above – 9/2

Just Dottie – 5/1

The Last Cloud – 5/1

Simple Star – 7/1

Mack The Man – 8/1

Trailblazer – 10/1

Cuban Cigar – 12/1

Bishop Hill – 16/1

Leopolds Rock – 20/1

Hourless – 25/1

Gemini Man – 33/1

Coventry – 40/1



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Summary

This looks a competitive Class 4 handicap with several well-matched on form. Heart Above gets the nod for reliability and a solid recent second, with Just Dottie respected in her bid for a C&D hat-trick. The Last Cloud brings upside now handicapping and needs keeping on side. Simple Star rates a value each-way angle. Market strength around Leopolds Rock and Cuban Cigar should be watched closely, particularly given long absences and back-class.