Pace Forecast: Strong

Pace/Run Style Insight
The predicted strong, end-to-end gallop may not favour prominent racers as it typically would over this trip at Punchestown. Notably, this blunts the usual edge for front-runners such as Fillusin, while it could help closers like Ringcreevy Diamond or Regards To Rose if they settle and stay on. With 19 runners declared, race position and jumping accuracy will be decisive.


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Main Contenders

KEEP UP (W. P. Mullins) – 8/10
Won her bumper on debut before contesting a Listed mares’ race at Gowran. Shaped with promise and is bred for this trip. Hurdles debutant, but this is a typical Mullins placement. The 24% strike rate at Punchestown since 2021/22 bolsters confidence. Long layoff (247 days), so market behaviour will be informative.

FILLUSIN (Gordon Elliott) – 7.5/10
Runner-up twice in maiden hurdles last season and ran to a fair level. Usual front-running style could leave her vulnerable if the pace is as strong as forecast, and this extended trip may expose limitations. However, the form is consistent, and she has a rating of 106.

REGARDS TO ROSE – 7/10
Shaped like a likely winner last time when stumbling two out and losing momentum. Form boosted by her Limerick second and Kilbeggan third. Has experience over hurdles and now steps up to a more suitable distance. Tongue-tied again. Trainer’s record is ordinary, but she has scope.

MI LUCKY CAILIN – 6/10
Rated 105 and generally consistent, though hasn’t conclusively proven stamina for beyond 2m. This will stretch her. Forgive the latest Punchestown effort as it came in a hot race. Each-way possibilities if she improves for the trip.


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Interesting Outsiders

KILRUSH LADY – 6/10
Returned from a break with a solid third at Downpatrick in July 2024, has since had a point win (May 2025). Could be underestimated, especially if market support comes. Subjective stamina doubts on pedigree, but stays in points.

MILESFROMTHEHONK – 5/10
Gordon Elliott’s second string on debut. Dam and family stay this sort of trip and beyond. Trainer booking and pedigree warrant attention, but no form to go on. One for market watchers.

TOMORROW AT DAWN – 4.5/10
Improved a bit on hurdles debut at Cork when fifth behind a fair type. Wears a tongue tie. Likely to improve, but still a big leap required to get competitive here. Market again key.

LADY VICTRIX – 4/10
Well-bred mare related to staying jumpers and by Getaway (notable 55 progeny have won on hurdle debut). No form shown but could surprise if supported.


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Other Runners (Selected Ratings/Notes)

DOYENTOHURL – 3/10 – Jumping frailties; unseated latest.

CHURCHILL ROSE – 2.5/10 – Very modest on the Flat, no promise over hurdles.

PRINCESS GEORGIE – 2.5/10 – Jumping let her down last time.

YOU CAN’T DO THAT – 2/10 – Last in bumper and long absence.

RUTLAND ROSE – 3.5/10 – Trainer Brassil noted for profits with single hurdle runners; otherwise exposed.



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Trends & Notes

Last 2 winners were well-fancied mares aged 5–7.

2023 & 2024 winners ran prominently and were in the top two in the betting.

Willie Mullins (KEEP UP) is 24% at Punchestown since 2021/22 and regularly introduces good mares in summer maidens.

Watch for market confidence on second-time starters like TOMORROW AT DAWN and CHURCHILL ROSE.



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Runner Ratings out of 10

Horse Rating

Keep Up 8
Fillusin 7.5
Regards To Rose 7
Mi Lucky Cailin 6
Kilrush Lady 6
Milesfromthehonk 5
Tomorrow At Dawn 4.5
Lady Victrix 4
Doyentohurl 3
Churchill Rose 2.5
Princess Georgie 2.5
You Can’t Do That 2
Rutland Rose 3.5


Market Watch Advice

Keep Up (247 days off) – strong support could indicate readiness.

Fillusin – has fitness and form, but drift would be negative.

Kilrush Lady – support after PTP win would be significant.

Milesfromthehonk and Lady Victrix – unexposed; any support worth noting.



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Private Tissue (100%)

Keep Up – 3/1

Fillusin – 7/2

Regards To Rose – 6/1

Mi Lucky Cailin – 8/1

Kilrush Lady – 10/1

Milesfromthehonk – 12/1

Tomorrow At Dawn – 20/1

Lady Victrix – 20/1

Others – 25/1 to 200/1



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Summary

A deep mares’ maiden where Keep Up looks primed to strike if ready on hurdles debut for Mullins, with a strong Flat pedigree and Listed bumper form. Fillusin is a reliable yardstick with solid form but may be vulnerable if the pace collapses. Regards To Rose is steadily progressing and could get competitive again. Watch for Kilrush Lady and Milesfromthehonk if the money comes. The big field and predicted strong pace mean luck in running will be key.