1. Race Conditions & Pace/Draw Angles

A listed race for 3yo fillies over just shy of 1m2f on soft ground. The pace is expected to be even, which may not favour those who need a strong tempo to be seen at their best. Historically at this trip on soft at Goodwood, hold-up tactics can prove effective due to the steady early fractions and gradual climb to the line—but this race lacks obvious front-runners. Timeform notes suggest MODERN UTOPIA may be poorly suited by the even pace, whereas TATTYCORAM should benefit from it. No specific draw bias is noted under today’s conditions.


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2. Contenders, Dangers & Profile Comments

Strongest Contenders:

MISS TONNERRE (108) – Produced a smart debut win last summer and ran well in the May Hill. Reappeared in a deep Musidora Stakes but didn’t land a blow. Still retains potential and should appreciate the return to slightly easier ground and slightly weaker company. Trained by Ed Walker (in form).

PURPLE RAINBOW (100p) – Progressive profile for William Haggas and was not disgraced in a decent minor event at Ascot. Looks set to stay this trip and should come forward again. Haggas has a 24% strike rate mid-season and 21% in races over this trip range.

JANEY MACKERS (101p) – Bolted up in a Doncaster maiden in the autumn on soft ground. Likely found the ground too quick at Newmarket on return. Soft surface now, and represents a stable that targets fillies’ black-type events.

TATTYCORAM (104) – Ran above market expectations in the Musidora and won well at Sandown prior. Ralph Beckett’s fillies improve with racing and this one is likely still ahead of her mark.


Main Dangers:

EL BUDOOR (88p) – Progressive filly from the Gosdens who showed plenty of fight to win narrowly at Lingfield. Likely to stay beyond this in time, but very much going the right way and has the pedigree for pattern class.

ANNA SWAN (101) – Appeared unfurnished last year and possibly still mentally green when trailing home in a Newmarket listed race. Has decent 2yo wins in the book and Haggas continues to support her in strong company.

QUEBELLA (91p) – Held in high regard by connections. Runner-up last time when touching a low in-running, suggesting she’s well thought of. Likely to stay further and may be underestimated.


Interesting Outsiders:

WAARDAH (98) – Was well backed on handicap debut but didn’t settle ideally. Still lightly raced and cost connections plenty. Trainer Owen Burrows is +£26.79 to a £1 stake when sending just one runner to a meeting.

QUEEN OF THIEVES (95) – Romped home in a Yarmouth maiden but has since been well held in two listed contests. Will stay, but soft ground might be a new question.


Trainer Note: William Haggas has three runners here. His fillies often improve with racing, but the yard is also adept at bringing them forward quickly after moderate runs. Ralph Beckett has not won this exact race in recent years but targets these types of races regularly.

Risk Types (pace-dependent or hold-up):
MODERN UTOPIA is a habitual slow-starter and off-pace runner—will need luck in running.
TATTYCORAM, ANNA SWAN and QUEBELLA have all run from behind in steadily-run races but stayed on.


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3. Ratings out of 10 (based on form, ratings, profile, and suitability to race setup)

MISS TONNERRE – 8

PURPLE RAINBOW – 8

TATTYCORAM – 7.5

JANEY MACKERS – 7.5

EL BUDOOR – 7

ANNA SWAN – 6.5

WAARDAH – 6

QUEBELLA – 6

QUEEN OF THIEVES – 5.5

MODERN UTOPIA – 5

RHAPSODY – 4.5

BOWERCHALKE – 4


Note: Keep a close watch on market moves for:
– JANEY MACKERS and MISS TONNERRE, both returning from breaks
– QUEBELLA and WAARDAH, who are making only their third/fourth starts
– In-form sprinters turning out quickly aren’t relevant here


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4. Each-Way Angles

With 12 runners declared, each-way terms apply. EL BUDOOR and QUEBELLA appeal as possible value at longer odds if supported in the market.


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5. Private Tissue Estimate (100%)

MISS TONNERRE – 9/2

PURPLE RAINBOW – 5/1

TATTYCORAM – 11/2

JANEY MACKERS – 6/1

EL BUDOOR – 15/2

ANNA SWAN – 10/1

WAARDAH – 12/1

QUEBELLA – 14/1

MODERN UTOPIA – 16/1

QUEEN OF THIEVES – 18/1

RHAPSODY – 20/1

BOWERCHALKE – 33/1



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6. Summary

This year’s Agnes Keyser Stakes is a typically open listed fillies’ contest where progression counts. Miss Tonnerre and Purple Rainbow are the two with the most convincing profiles based on class, ratings and trainer form. Janey Mackers is likely to relish the return to soft going, while Tattycoram is best of those with solid recent black-type form. For value, El Budoor is going the right way and Quebella may outrun her odds if the market speaks positively.

Best watched for late support: Janey Mackers, El Budoor, Quebella.
Handle Modern Utopia with caution—she’s a confirmed hold-up type in a race not stacked with pace.