Going: Good to yielding | Pace Forecast: Strong
Pace Note: A strong pace is forecast. Hold-up horses may need luck in running. Prominent racers should be favoured if they can settle early. Natural Look may find things too hot late on, while Joyeux Vivo could be seen to better effect off a strong gallop.


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Leading Contenders

STAY GOLD (129p, 9/10): Caught the eye finishing strongly over 19f at the Punchestown Festival behind a well-handicapped winner. Bred to stay this longer trip and shaped like he’d relish it. Unexposed at 3m and open to further improvement. One of the most interesting on profile.

ONE AND ONLY (136, 9/10): Runner-up on three of last four starts, all in competitive fields. Strong finishing style suits today’s predicted pace. Still relatively unexposed at 3m and his second to Flemens Intrest reads well. Solid form claims.

HOWDOYALIKEHERHOME (130p, 8/10): Consistent mare who stays well and remains capable of better. Third at Listowel under similar conditions. Connections reach for blinkers again. Proven over a trip, trainer in form.



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Main Dangers & Outsiders

BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA (133, 8/10): Strong finisher and multiple winner this season. Comes here off the back of a fair third at Wexford. She will be played late and the expected strong gallop should help. Market signals crucial – has traded much shorter than SP before.

LONDONOFFICECALLIN (128, 7/10): Back to form when third at Ballinrobe in a decent handicap. Open to further progress at staying trips. Unlikely to be far away.

JOYEUX VIVO (135, 7/10): Flatters to deceive at times but the strong pace will suit. Runner-up at Punchestown last autumn in a staying chase. May pick up pieces late if it collapses up front.

HEES DYNAMITE (131, 7/10): Could be well handicapped judged on his autumn form at Limerick. Excused last run, front-running style vulnerable if he overdoes it, but remains of interest. Trainer 1/1 with single runners on the card in hurdles.

WESTERNERSUNRISE (134, 7/10): Has a win at Fairyhouse in a field of 23 on soft and shapes as a late bloomer. Needs a strong gallop to be at best and gets it here. Only one run since February but fits the profile of a progressive 6yo stayer.



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Trainer Trends & Profile Flags

Gordon Elliott saddles two: Howdoyalikeherhome and Ringdufferin. The former is in much better form.

Eric McNamara (Hees Dynamite) +£87 LSP with single hurdle runners on card – worth noting.

Past winners have often been unexposed stayers aged 5–7 rated between 100–115.

Notable recent winners include Whatucallher, Mister Beeton, and Stacks Mountain – all carried low weights and came from off the pace.



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Ratings out of 10 (with hold-up risk/layoff marker)

Horse Rating

Stay Gold 9/10
One and Only 9/10
Howdoyalikeherhome 8/10
Birmingham Alabama 8/10
Londonofficecallin 7/10
Joyeux Vivo 7/10 (hold-up type)
Hees Dynamite 7/10
Westernersunrise 7/10
Coral River 6/10
Natural Look 5/10 (hold-up type)
Ringdufferin 4/10 (off form, layoff risk)
Walking On Glass 4/10 (exposed, layoff)
Club Manager 5/10
Ballyglass Beauty 4/10 (420-day layoff, market check vital)
Navigator Jack 5/10 (layoff)
Rut Daniels 4/10
Queen Nel 6/10 (unproven at trip)
Malton Groove 3/10


Market Watch Notes:

Ballyglass Beauty (420 days off) – market check essential.

Ringdufferin, Navigator Jack – both on 70+ day layoffs.

Stay Gold – unexposed type, market may signal confidence.

Second-time handicappers: None obvious, but Stay Gold steps up to 3m for first time in a handicap.



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Each-Way Angles (18 runners)

HEES DYNAMITE – value outsider if ridden with more restraint.

WESTERNERSUNRISE – could sneak into the frame again off a workable mark.



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Private Tissue Estimate

Runner Odds

Stay Gold 6/1
One and Only 6/1
Howdoyalikeherhome 15/2
Birmingham Alabama 8/1
Londonofficecallin 9/1
Joyeux Vivo 10/1
Hees Dynamite 12/1
Westernersunrise 14/1
Queen Nel 16/1
Natural Look 20/1
Ballyglass Beauty 22/1
Club Manager 22/1
Coral River 22/1
Ringdufferin 33/1
Walking On Glass 33/1
Rut Daniels 33/1
Navigator Jack 33/1
Malton Groove 50/1



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Summary

This is a deep and competitive staying handicap where a strong pace looks assured. Stay Gold is the standout improver now stepped up to 3m and shaped like a winner in waiting at the Punchestown Festival. One and Only is very solid on form, while Howdoyalikeherhome and Birmingham Alabama are both threats if the race sets up for closers. Hees Dynamite and Westernersunrise offer each-way value at bigger prices with profile positives. Watch for significant market support for Stay Gold, and for any moves on Ballyglass Beauty after her long absence.