Pace Forecast: Very Weak the lack of pace is notable. Prominent racers can sometimes dominate here over 3m if they control it, though the track generally favours those coming late, particularly in weakly-run races. However, The Flying Poet could be caught out if held up off such a tempo.


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Leading Contenders & Race Shape Analysis

THE FLYING POET (Olly Murphy) – Adjusted TFR 108 – 7/10
Big trainer strike rate at Perth (31%) and good jockey booking in Sean Bowen (30% strike rate here). Improved markedly when runner-up at Ffos Las on return from a break (travelled well, found plenty despite jumping right). Going up in trip could suit based on the way he stayed on. Hold-up tactics plus weak pace forecast are a potential negative, especially if nothing presses early.

DONSO STAR (R Mike Smith) – Adjusted TFR 105 – 7/10
A reliable and consistent type around the 2½m mark, with multiple placed efforts at Perth. Raised stamina question upped to 3m for the first time, but no real reason on pedigree or form to rule it out. Gets in off 100. Usually held up – may also need luck in the run given the forecast crawl.

MAN OF ACTION (G Rutherford) – Adjusted TFR 105 – 6.5/10
Took a big step forward at Hexham last time, staying on well from off the pace to win comfortably. Looks progressive for this yard and has already proven stamina. However, that was a weak race and his two previous efforts were ordinary. Still of interest second time in a handicap, market watch advised.

KING COCONUT (Nicky Richards) – Adjusted TFR N/A – 6/10
Unexposed, lightly raced 5yo, and now sent handicapping after three quiet novice efforts at sub-2½m. This step up in trip and move into handicaps is exactly what he looks bred and shaped for. Trainer form solid. Market support would be a strong indicator. Could outrun his bare form figures.

NOT IN KANSAS (N W Alexander) – Adjusted TFR 107 – 6.5/10
Won here in 2024 and showed enough when fourth in the same race last time. Another usually held up, but has the stamina to come through a test. Entitled to come forward again after the return. Cheekpieces off, tongue tie retained.


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Interesting Outsiders & Profile Watch

BURGUNDY MAN (R Mike Smith) – Adjusted TFR 105 – 5.5/10
Form figures suggest decline, but he’s well handicapped now and shaped better than result here two runs back. Could sneak a place in a thin race. Will be dropped out early – one of the bigger pace liabilities.

DALILEO (Lisa Harrison) – Adjusted TFR 98 – 5/10
Course specialist (3 wins here), but recent efforts poor. May come on for the run after a break and drop back to hurdles may help. Hard to trust, but this is the sort of race he’s won before. Layoff of 169 days – market watch advised.

NOWINITTOWINIT (J Bedi) – Adjusted TFR N/A – 4.5/10
Poor recent form and bleeding issue. Returns off a break and from a lowly sale price. Would be a big surprise. Layoff (194 days) flags caution.

EVIES COURT (N Kelly) – Adjusted TFR ? – 4/10
Irish-trained outsider who has yet to finish close. May improve now handicapping, but little to go on and up in trip. Another needing market signal.

STRIKE OF LIGHTING (G Bewley) – Adjusted TFR 103 – 4.5/10
Last seen 575 days ago, previously well-handicapped and a Cartmel winner. This trip suits, but fitness is a big question. Trainer’s runners often need a run back. Drift could confirm.

THATSY (L Quinlan) – Adjusted TFR ? – 4/10
Well below past form, now 11 and not shown spark for a long time. Only interest comes from trainer’s positive one-runner stat (+£20.50 in hurdles), but on known form, hard to fancy.


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Ratings Out of Ten

Horse Rating /10 Notes

THE FLYING POET 7 Big trainer/jockey stats, strong return. Hold-up in weak pace a concern.
DONSO STAR 7 Reliable; new trip test. Should go well if staying.
MAN OF ACTION 6.5 Last-time-out winner; second run in handicap is key angle.
NOT IN KANSAS 6.5 Consistent here; potential improver from last run.
KING COCONUT 6 Unexposed; well-bred; market support crucial.
BURGUNDY MAN 5.5 Poor form but not without claims if race collapses.
DALILEO 5 Needs a revival; has won this exact race (Div II) last year.
STRIKE OF LIGHTING 4.5 Huge layoff, fitness query, but had ability.
NOWINITTOWINIT 4.5 Pulled up three times; very risky profile.
THATSY 4 Better days behind him; needs big turnaround.
EVIES COURT 4 Hard to assess; very weak Irish form.



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Trends and Notes

Olly Murphy has a 31% strike rate at Perth – THE FLYING POET well placed statistically.

Trainer R Mike Smith saddles two, both rated 100 or under, both with bits of track form.

Course winners: Not In Kansas, Dalileo, Nowinittowinit (though recent form inconsistent).

Past winners of this race suggest 5–7yo types, rated 80–95, often with track form, can win this (e.g., Fever Dream, Dalileo himself in Div II in 2024).



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Each-Way Angles (11 runners)

With 11 runners, three places available. Worth consideration:

NOT IN KANSAS – Proven at course, shaped ok LTO.

KING COCONUT – Unexposed, steps up in trip. Big watch if backed.



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Private Tissue Estimate (100%)

The Flying Poet – 3/1

Donso Star – 9/2

Man Of Action – 9/2

King Coconut – 13/2

Not In Kansas – 15/2

Dalileo – 12/1

Burgundy Man – 14/1

Strike of Lighting – 18/1

Nowinittowinit – 22/1

Evies Court – 33/1

Thatsy – 40/1



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Summary

This is a low-grade staying handicap likely to be run at a crawl. The Flying Poet is the class angle and returns with solid figures for yard and rider, but may find himself poorly positioned if the pace holds up. Donso Star and Man Of Action are reliable and progressive types respectively, with the latter open to more. King Coconut is an unexposed one for the notebook – especially if the market speaks. Not In Kansas offers some each-way value for place purposes, with form at the track.

Watch the market closely – particularly for King Coconut, Strike of Lighting (575 days off), and Nowinittowinit. Weak tempo raises the chance of pace-biased results.