Pace & Draw Overview:
The pace forecast is very strong, which typically disadvantages front-runners, especially at this trip. Notably, Salisbury’s 10f start on the round course can expose low draws in strongly run contests, with wider-drawn hold-up types favoured when the leaders overdo it. The draw bias here is against low numbers, which is worth bearing in mind for those posted inside.


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Strongest Contenders:

Crepe Suzette (Gosden, Havlin) – 8/10
Timeform adjusted 85p. Strongly bred and broke her maiden at Wolverhampton when given a positive tactical ride. Faces different conditions now (trip/ground), but her pedigree and progression suggest she’s above this level in time. Risk: can be slowly away, and the strong pace might leave her needing luck if dropped in.

Schemaya (Hannon, Levey) – 8/10
84p adjusted. Won on handicap debut at Windsor under a front-running ride. That run showed improvement, and the extra yardage may suit further. A daughter of a French 7f winner, she’s expected to progress. Wide draw helps if held up, but may need to settle early in this pace scenario.

Patsy Snugfit (Johnson Houghton, Mitchell) – 7.5/10
Timeform 84. C&D winner last time in first-time headgear, showed tactical pace and resolution. That win came in a steadily run race; this will be more searching. Likely to be handy again – may be vulnerable to closers.


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Main Dangers & Notable Outsiders:

Organic (Mulholland, Probert) – 6.5/10
81 rated. Versatile mare with past turf wins and a tendency to come from behind. The setup may favour her style, and Timeform notes she has a habit of trading bigger in-running than her SP – market moves could be telling on this second run back from a hurdles spell.

Azahara Palace (Morrison, Marquand) – 6.5/10
83 rated and proven at this trip. Her best form gives her a solid chance, but she tends to race freely, which could be costly if the early fractions are too quick again. Course form a positive.

Pasha (James Owen, Crouch) – 6/10
79 adjusted. Recent third at Leicester signalled a revival. Drawn well for a waiting ride and represents a stable with a £41.12 level-stake profit when sending a sole runner to flat meetings.

Patagonia Girl (Palmer, Murphy) – 6.5/10
84 rated. Backed by an in-form jockey (28% at the track) and shapes like a staying type. This strong pace might bring her into it late. Each-way angle in a field of 13.

Casa De Salinas (Chapple-Hyam, De Sousa) – 5.5/10
77 rated. Won a maiden last year but was disappointing at Yarmouth last time. Likely needs more time, but second start back, and De Sousa is an eye-catching booking.

Tempted (Sangster, Watson) – 6/10
80 rated. Got her head in front at Wolverhampton, but only just. Slow starter with a pedigree to stay 10f+; this setup may help, though the leap in class is notable.

Calaxy (Dascombe, Jamin) – 5/10
80 rated. Yet to prove she stays this trip, and both wins and better form have come over 7f. Pulled hard when last seen and may not get home under pressure.

Honour Whim (Muir & Grassick, Planas) – 5/10
79 rated. Looks out of her depth based on recent form. Likely to be exposed late.

Schemaya and Tempted both are second-start handicap runners – watch the market closely, especially for moves within the final 10 minutes pre-off.


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Runners Rated out of 10 (fitness, profile, form, suitability):

Crepe Suzette – 8

Schemaya – 8

Patsy Snugfit – 7.5

Patagonia Girl – 6.5

Azahara Palace – 6.5

Organic – 6.5

Pasha – 6

Tempted – 6

Casa De Salinas – 5.5

Calaxy – 5

Honour Whim – 5



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Trends & Trainer Notes:

James Owen has a notable level-stake profit with single runners at flat meetings (Pasha).

Past winners of this race have often been 3yo fillies, carrying 8-11 to 9-10, and five of the last six winners returned at 5/2 to 14/1.

Timeform flags indicate Crepe Suzette and Schemaya are open to more.



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Each-Way Angles (13 runners):

Patagonia Girl: drawn well, Oisin Murphy rides, and strong pace could suit.

Organic: proven closer, thrives off a strong tempo, and overpriced if ready.

Pasha: quietly progressive, on a revival path with trainer stat in her favour.



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Private Tissue Estimate (100%):

Crepe Suzette – 11/4

Schemaya – 4/1

Patsy Snugfit – 6/1

Patagonia Girl – 13/2

Organic – 8/1

Azahara Palace – 8/1

Pasha – 10/1

Tempted – 12/1

Casa De Salinas – 16/1

Calaxy – 20/1

Honour Whim – 25/1



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Summary:

This looks a race where class and potential outweigh experience. Crepe Suzette and Schemaya appeal most with scope to rate higher, while Patsy Snugfit remains solid but vulnerable to improvers. Patagonia Girl and Organic appeal as closers in a race set to collapse late. Market strength behind Pasha or Casa De Salinas would be interesting, especially given layoff return dynamics and trainer angles.