Pace Forecast

Weak – The slow pace should benefit forward-goers like Must Meet Cecil, while those needing a strong tempo may struggle.


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Runner-by-Runner Analysis

1. DREAL DEAL (IRE)
Trainer: J McConnell | Jockey: D A Kidd (7) | OR: 132
❌ Form figures are bleak (last 5 runs: 7P610), but this is a sharp drop in grade.
✅ Has back class, goes on any ground, and drops into a claimer for the first time.
❌ Trainer badly out of form (0-33 past 30 days).
Rating: 6/10


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2. LIGHTKEEPER (IRE) – NR
Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: F Brickley (7) | OR: 114
❌ Pulled up twice recently and off colour.
✅ Two chase wins earlier in spring suggest ability remains.
✅ Now drops in class to hurdles; stable in form.
⚠️ Best watched on current evidence, especially with the non-runner status.
Rating: N/A


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3. MUST MEET CECIL (IRE)
Trainer: C M Collins | Jockey: C P Millar (5) | OR: 109
✅ Proven at this level (claimer winner in April).
✅ Handles soft/good to yielding; races prominently (suits slow pace forecast).
❌ Second to Beacon Edge latest (beaten 22L), though that was a higher level.
Rating: 7/10


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4. MEPHISTO (IRE)
Trainer: G Keane | Jockey: K C Sexton | OR: 93
✅ Ran well at Clonmel in a similar race last time.
❌ Longstanding maiden over hurdles and fences; not the most reliable.
✅ Flat background keeps him fit, stays this trip.
Rating: 6/10


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5. IORENS (FR)
Trainer: T O’Connor | Jockey: James Smith (5) | OR: 91
❌ Off for 387 days; last seen being pulled up at Stratford.
✅ Placed in points recently; capable of racing prominently.
❌ Lacks recent competitive form under Rules.
Rating: 3/10


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6. EMBITTERED (IRE)
Trainer: Eric McNamara | Jockey: P M O’Brien (7) | OR: 130
✅ Former classy chaser, now in a claimer.
❌ Form for current yard poor; beaten out of sight last time.
✅ Down in trip/class and may outclass these on old form.
⚠️ Market support would be significant.
Rating: 7/10


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7. HALLA PAROISTE (IRE)
Trainer: C M Collins | Jockey: E Walsh | OR: 96
❌ Beaten 43L latest in handicap; limited proven ability.
✅ Best form was at Tramore last October (3rd of 11).
❌ Still unconvincing in open company; not obviously well treated.
Rating: 4/10


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8. ROCKVIEW ROMAN (IRE)
Trainer: J McConnell | Jockey: P Hanlon (7) | OR: 92
✅ Stayed on for 3rd to Beacon Edge latest, shaping like a stayer.
❌ Trainer ice cold.
✅ Better suited to slower pace this time.
Rating: 5/10


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Tissue Odds (100% Book)

Must Meet Cecil – 3/1

Embittered – 7/2

Dreal Deal – 5/1

Mephisto – 6/1

Rockview Roman – 8/1

Halla Paroiste – 12/1

Iorens – 33/1

Lightkeeper – NR



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Summary

Most Likely Winner: Must Meet Cecil

Has run well in this grade, stays the trip, and is suited by the pace profile. Appears to have the fewest questions and boasts the strongest recent placing.


Main Danger: Embittered

The drop into a claimer is eye-catching, and if retaining any of his past form, he’s a massive threat.


Other Notes:

Dreal Deal may pop up if rediscovering any old spark, but stable form is dire.

Mephisto is consistent but lacks finishing punch.