Pace Forecast: Weak

Pace/Drew Angles

A weak pace is forecast for this race. The tendency for a steady tempo will benefit those who race prominently rather than hold-up horses. The expected slower pace might disadvantage horses that prefer to come from off the pace, making it more likely that those closer to the front will prevail.

Strongest Contenders

KATES CHOICE (IRE)
Rating: 9/10
Trainer: James Joseph Mangan
Jockey: M. P. O’Connor
A €55,000 acquisition, Kates Choice has shown promise in maiden hurdles and could be well placed here with the anticipated pace. She has some decent form in similar races and is a clear contender for this race.

NASHVILLE NOTIONS (IRE)
Rating: 8/10
Trainer: P. Kiely
Jockey: Liam Quinlan
Nashville Notions is a solid performer and comes into this race with a respectable record over hurdles. She finished well in her last outing and can challenge the favorite.


Main Dangers

ANNARUBYROSE (IRE)
Rating: 7/10
Trainer: Gavin Patrick Cromwell
Jockey: Patrick Michael O’Brien
Annarubyrose comes from a hot trainer and has shown potential, although she will need to step up from her debut hurdles performance.

CARLA’S PET (IRE)
Rating: 7/10
Trainer: Darren Collins
Jockey: James Smith
Carla’s Pet has shown some improvement in her hurdle races, although she hasn’t yet put in a standout performance. She could be a good each-way contender at a bigger price.


Interesting Outsiders

EMILY’S LIGHT (IRE)
Rating: 6/10
Trainer: Miss M. Harding
Jockey: A. M. McCurtin
Emily’s Light may improve with experience and could surprise at an extended price.

OUR GIRL ELLIE (IRE)
Rating: 6/10
Trainer: Stephen Ryan
Jockey: Trevor Ryan
Our Girl Ellie showed marginal improvement last time out and could be a longshot to consider for the place.


Trainer/Jockey Trends

Hugh P. Finegan (trainer of Ar Aghaidh): Finegan has a profit to a £1 level stake with one runner on the card in recent stats, indicating a possible chance of success with Ar Aghaidh in this race.


Betting Forecast

KATES CHOICE: 5/2

NASHVILLE NOTIONS: 4/1

ANNARUBYROSE: 8/1

CARLA’S PET: 11/1

MOLLY’S DOLLY: 11/1

AR AGHAIDH: 22/1


Market Watch

KICK ON NELLIE is a non-runner, and TOWNHILL LASS could be worth monitoring if there’s a significant market move.


Tissue Estimate

KATES CHOICE: 5/2

NASHVILLE NOTIONS: 3/1

ANNARUBYROSE: 9/2

CARLA’S PET: 7/1

EMILY’S LIGHT: 10/1


Summary

The race should be competitive with KATES CHOICE and NASHVILLE NOTIONS the top contenders. KATES CHOICE is the clear favorite, especially with the anticipated pace that suits her style. However, NASHVILLE NOTIONS is a capable alternative if there’s a slight upset. ANNARUBYROSE and CARLA’S PET are respectable each-way chances, while any market movement on the outsiders like OUR GIRL ELLIE or MOLLY’S DOLLY should be noted.