Pace Forecast: Very Weak
With no confirmed front-runner in the field, this is projected to be a steadily run contest. As such, horses that race prominently or can take up an early position should be favoured. That places MORFEE and BELGARUM in a better tactical position than confirmed hold-up types like ONETHREEFIVENOTOUT, who may find himself at a positional disadvantage if the tempo is sedate.


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Contenders, Dangers, and Notable Runners:

Strongest Contenders:

BELGARUM (Joe Tizzard) – 7yo (OR 110, TF 129)
Improving novice chaser who benefited notably from the step back up to this trip when scoring decisively at Newton Abbot last time. A 7lb rise looks manageable given he travelled well and pulled clear in a race that has worked out since (runner-up has won since). Acts on both good to firm and soft, has cheekpieces retained.
Trainer has a 23% summer strike rate.

MORFEE (Seamus Mullins) – 9yo (OR 111, TF 127)
Hard-knocking and consistent; runner-up on 3 of last 4 starts including behind an improver at Cartmel last time when pulling 18 lengths clear of the third. Well suited to a stamina test and tends to race handily – a positive in the expected tactical setup. Not flashy but rarely fails to give his running. One to rely on.


Main Danger:

ONETHREEFIVENOTOUT (Paul Nicholls) – 9yo (OR 115, TF 126)
Looked transformed by a breathing operation when winning in a canter at Newton Abbot (25.8f) by 14 lengths. That was a weak race, but the ease of the success suggests he’s back in good heart. However, has bled in the past, and his attitude had previously been in question. Likely to be held up again, which might not suit the tempo here.
Nicholls has a solid 24% strike rate with chasers in this distance bracket.


Interesting Outsider:

NO NO MAESTRO (Fergal O’Brien) – 10yo (OR 107, TF 121)
One-time winner over fences but hasn’t shown much since and shaped as if needing the run when well beaten on return from 11 months off. The yard is capable of sparking a revival, but this looks a prep run more than a winning opportunity. Market watch advised.


Others:

ENJOY D’ALLEN has regressed sharply from former Irish form and was tailed off at Cartmel in a similar contest. He’s not impossible to revive off this mark, but showed little under the new trainer and races lazily.



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Timeform Profile Notes & Trends:

BELGARUM holds the Timeform “Horse In Focus” flag and has run to an adjusted rating of 129.

Nicholls has shown profit to level stakes with single chase runners on a card.

MORFEE is very consistent in this grade and acts on varying ground.

Hold-up horses like ONETHREEFIVENOTOUT could be at risk if the race is run steadily, as projected.

No runner is returning from a 90+ day layoff, but NO NO MAESTRO did return recently after an 11-month absence.



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Runner Ratings out of 10:

BELGARUM – 8.5/10 – Form strong and progressive, tactically well suited.

MORFEE – 8/10 – Solid and consistent, but perhaps vulnerable to an improver.

ONETHREEFIVENOTOUT – 7.5/10 – Dangerous if repeating last run, but tactical setup and past issues a concern.

NO NO MAESTRO – 5.5/10 – Recent return uninspiring; needs to step forward.

ENJOY D’ALLEN – 4/10 – Down the weights but well below old form; big leap of faith required.



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Belgarum – 9/4

Morfee – 5/2

Onethreefivenotout – 3/1

No No Maestro – 9/1

Enjoy D’Allen – 16/1



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Summary:

This small-field handicap chase looks set to be run at a crawl, potentially putting the emphasis on tactical positioning and jumping fluency. BELGARUM is improving at the right time and responded well to this trip last time, making him the most persuasive option in a race likely to suit. MORFEE is ultra-consistent and appeals as the most solid each-way play, but lacks the scope for progress that BELGARUM may possess. ONETHREEFIVENOTOUT has ability but needs things to fall right tactically and doesn’t come without risks. Watch the market, particularly for NO NO MAESTRO, who should strip fitter now.