Good (Good to Firm in places) | Strong pace forecast


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🧭 Race Setup

Trip: 1m straight – no draw bias

Pace: Strong – suits handy racers at this track/trip

Going: Good (Good to Firm in places)

Bias Watch: No major draw bias, but closers may struggle off this pace



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🏇 Top Contenders (marks out of 10)

BOUBYAN (IRE) (8/10)

Timeform 90p | “Horse in Focus” | Hot trainer & jockey (Balding/Doyle)

Eye-catching Windsor third when conceding first run. Proven at trip, should sit close to strong pace.

Strong on Smart Stats (Balding has 2 wins in last 10 runnings)


SOMETHING SPLENDID (7.5/10)

Timeform 88 | Dropping back to 1m is likely to suit

Yarmouth effort came quickly after solid Nottingham third. Billy Loughnane booked.

Unexposed and bred to improve with racing


MANILA THRILLER (7/10)

Timeform 89 | Fair Listed race run last time; eased in class here

Proven stamina and tactical versatility. Could go well with cover behind pace.


AMERICAN STATE (IRE) (7/10)

Timeform 84p | Handicap debut, fair runs over 7f, bred for 1m

Could improve sharply now granted a more suitable test and stronger pace.


JARHAM (6.5/10)

Timeform 83 | Gelded over winter, good reappearance at Haydock

Nicely drawn to track pace, fair scope off 73 for Clive Cox


ORCHARD (FR) (6.5/10)

Timeform 86 | Last-time-out Kempton winner, pace collapsed in his favour

Likes strong gallop, but may be too far back here if pace holds up


SHOWYOUTHEROPES (IRE) (6/10)

Timeform 87 | Big-field turf handicap debut, Yarmouth run better than it looks

Unexposed and bred to appreciate a test, suited if things collapse late


MINI MAC (IRE) (6/10)

Timeform 85 | Doncaster run likely came too soon, Nottingham win prior was solid

Returns fresh with jockey upgrade in Mitchell, best on quicker ground



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⚠️ Others Rated

VIRTUE PATIENCE (5.5/10)

Runner-up to Orchard but didn’t back it up at Sandown. May need a calmer scenario.


UPPERCASE (5/10)

Hot trainer (Harry Eustace), but below-par Kempton return. Bit to prove now.


GEO (IRE) (5/10)

Buick booked but recent turf form uninspiring; badly hampered latest, though.


CASTRO AURUM (4.5/10)

Mild ability, form flattened out. Looks vulnerable off 72.


CONDOTTI (IRE) (4.5/10)

237-day layoff and gelded. Market may guide. Conditions should suit.


DOLLYANA (4/10)

Multiple defeats at 7f/1m this season. Others better treated.


EMERY DOWN (3.5/10)

Sandown flop on handicap debut. Hard to fancy on that evidence.


TEQUILA STAR (IRE) (2.5/10)

Poor turf efforts, huge backward step at Leicester. No positives.



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🧮 Tissue Estimate (100%):

Horse Odds

Boubyan 4/1
Something Splendid 7/1
American State 8/1
Manila Thriller 9/1
Orchard 10/1
Jarham 12/1
Showyoutheropes 14/1
Mini Mac 16/1
Virtue Patience 20/1
Uppercase 22/1
Geo 25/1
Castro Aurum 25/1
Condotti 25/1
Dollyana 33/1
Emery Down 40/1
Tequila Star 66/1



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🧠 Summary

Most likely winner: BOUBYAN – strong profile, ready to win off 70

Best each-way (4 places+): SOMETHING SPLENDID – well-bred and forgiven latest

Lively outsider: MINI MAC – fair form and well-treated on peak figures