Going: Good (Good to Firm in places) | Draw Bias: Favours Low | Pace Forecast: Even


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🔢 Ratings Foundation

Top Timeform Rating: HICKORY (106), then DORNEY LAKE (105), LOCAL HERO, GRAND KARAT, WARM SPELL, SURREY SHADOW, CHALK MOUNTAIN (104)

Recent timefigure highlight: TWISTING PHYSICS and BELIEVE THE STORM both recorded strong IPS metrics in recent 7f/8f handicaps.

Form trend:

Improving: TWISTING PHYSICS, BELIEVE THE STORM, SURREY SHADOW

Flat: GRAND KARAT, DORNEY LAKE, HICKORY

Regressive or risky: METAVERSE, LOCAL HERO (inconsistent)




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🧭 Race Conditions Match

Trip suitability confirmed: All proven or likely over 7f (BELIEVE THE STORM and TWISTING PHYSICS improving at 7f)

Going/surface: Most are proven on good/firm; minor queries for WARM SPELL, PHOTOSYNTHESIS

Course/undulations: Neutral overall; HICKORY, CHALK MOUNTAIN act well on flatter tracks

Weight vs frame: HICKORY top weight but framey, copes; BELIEVE THE STORM nicely in

Draw suitability (low favoured): TWISTING PHYSICS (stall 2), BELIEVE THE STORM (13), CHALK MOUNTAIN (9) may be inconvenienced



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⚖️ Race Shape / Tactical Fit

Pace map projection: Even pace; prominent racers usually favoured here

Most likely to benefit from this: SURREY SHADOW (races close up), ALTMORE (if breaking well)

Those held up needing luck: HICKORY, DORNEY LAKE, BELIEVE THE STORM



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📉 Form & Fitness Profile

Best last run upgrades: HICKORY (bad start at Sandown), CHALK MOUNTAIN (hampered twice)

Fresh/fit types: TWISTING PHYSICS (2nd off break), BELIEVE THE STORM (ran yesterday—stamina fine, freshness debatable)

Class shift: Level race, no obvious risers or droppers



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🧬 Connections & Intent

Trainer form: Haggas (ALTMORE), Charlton (GRAND KARAT), Hannon (LOCAL HERO) all strong 30-day form

Jockey angles: Buick (TWISTING PHYSICS) has 40% record on favs, Shoemark rides BELIEVE THE STORM again

Stable intent clues: BELIEVE THE STORM returning quickly (positive?); HICKORY for Osborne 3rd run of campaign (target?)



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🧨 Market & Setup

Potential ‘go day’ signals:

HICKORY – very solid prep, drawn well

TWISTING PHYSICS – big run off break, Buick booked

ALTMORE – trouble last time, now back down grade

BELIEVE THE STORM – bounce or progressive?




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📂 Extra Angles

Horse In Focus: HICKORY and CHALK MOUNTAIN

Smart Stats:

HAGGAS 22% strike rate at Newbury

BUICK 40% on favourites


Unexposed: BELIEVE THE STORM (just 4th run), SURREY SHADOW (still learning)



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📊 Runner Ratings (Out of 10)

Horse Score Notes

1. HICKORY 8.5 Class horse, unlucky LTO, top rated
2. DORNEY LAKE 6.5 Outpaced LTO, low draw helps, inconsistent
3. LOCAL HERO 6 Patchy form, trip OK, draw neutral
4. GRAND KARAT 7 Progressing, AW to turf switch worth noting
5. WARM SPELL 5 Fast ground a concern, poor Ascot run
6. SURREY SHADOW 7.5 Caught in traffic LTO, suited by pace/trip
7. METAVERSE 4.5 Fully exposed, regressive turf form
8. PHOTOSYNTHESIS 6 Excuses LTO, lacks top-end scope
9. TWISTING PHYSICS 8 Buick up, lightly raced, ground/draw ideal
10. BELIEVE THE STORM 7.5 Ran yesterday, lightly raced, clear potential
11. ALTMORE 7 Haggas runner, ignore York, danger if sharp
12. CHALK MOUNTAIN 6.5 Unlucky last run, better suited if strong pace
13. THE CARIBBEAN 5.5 Form fair, draw poor, more needed



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📉 Private Tissue (100% Book)

6/1 HICKORY

13/2 TWISTING PHYSICS

7/1 BELIEVE THE STORM

15/2 SURREY SHADOW

8/1 ALTMORE

9/1 GRAND KARAT

10/1 CHALK MOUNTAIN

12/1 PHOTOSYNTHESIS, DORNEY LAKE

14/1 THE CARIBBEAN, LOCAL HERO

20/1 WARM SPELL, METAVERSE



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🔍 Final Filter

If Hickory wins, will it feel obvious? Arguably yes. 3rd to a hot one at Sandown, ideal draw, improved since yard switch.

Is there upside elsewhere? TWISTING PHYSICS (progressive), BELIEVE THE STORM (on a roll, but fast turnaround).