🔢 Ratings & Form Overview

Top Timeform Adjusted Ratings:

SHAKAZIA – 87p (Improving profile, unlucky second latest)

LAVENDER BREEZE – 83 (Barrier trial winner, debuting for top yard)

EASTERN PEACE – 82 (Debutante 4th in 2024, fitness query on return)

SINDRIA – 77 (Respectable maiden form, scope for more)

TICKLING – 55p (Minor upgrade on debut, needs leap)



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🧭 Race Conditions Match

Horse Trip Going Course Weight Draw

SHAKAZIA ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ Neutral
LAVENDER BREEZE ✅ ? ✅ ✅ Neutral
EASTERN PEACE ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ Good
SINDRIA ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ Okay
TICKLING ✅ ? ? ✅ Neutral



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⚖️ Race Shape / Tactical Fit

Pace Forecast: Even

Pace Hint: Likely to suit prominent/handy types – Eastern Peace well-positioned vs Shakazia, who might again need to thread through late.

Front-runners: TICKLING, MALPEQUE, maybe PRETTY OMAGH GIRL

Hold-up types: SHAKAZIA, SINDRIA



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📉 Form & Fitness Notes

SHAKAZIA: Clear form pick; unlucky last time (had to switch). Still learning. Strong chance if settled earlier.

LAVENDER BREEZE: Expensive buy, barrier trial winner; yard often has debutants ready.

EASTERN PEACE: Group 2-placed as 2yo, might bounce from seasonal return 6 days ago.

SINDRIA: Weld type that often steps forward second up; may need further ideally.

TICKLING: Eye-catching debut; bred for 6–7f, stable not often firing with debut winners.



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🧬 Connections & Intent

SHAKAZIA: J.P. Murtagh/Heffernan combo strong on maidens. Hood + tongue again.

LAVENDER BREEZE: Jessica Harrington/Shane Foley; serious debut yard. Strong Kodiac angle.

SINDRIA: D.K. Weld runner, 2nd start; needs watching closely.

EASTERN PEACE: Small stable, minor concerns with quick return.

MALPEQUE: Cromwell second string but notable that she’s been kept in maiden company off long break.



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🧨 Market Setup

SHAKAZIA: 10/11 – was 20/1 last time. Serious support.

LAVENDER BREEZE: 13/8 – solid on paper, barrier trial winner, expected to go close.

EASTERN PEACE: 10/1 – Place angle if bouncing back.

SINDRIA: 7/1 – could shorten if backed again second up.

TICKLING: 50/1 – Not unfancied but probably needs another run.



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📂 Extra Angles

Timeform Flags: SHAKAZIA (p), TICKLING (p)

Smart Stats:

Kodiac debut winners (LAVENDER BREEZE): 175 career wins on debut.

Heffernan strike rate on favs: 36%.


Trends:

Last 5 winners of this race were 3yo fillies.

All winners since 2020 rated 75+ or flagged for strong connections/form.




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📊 Runner Ratings (Out of 10)

Horse Score

SHAKAZIA 9.5/10 – Clear standard, still learning, improving type
LAVENDER BREEZE 8/10 – Hot yard, barrier trial winner, unknown under race pressure
SINDRIA 7/10 – Could bounce second up, stamina for further later
EASTERN PEACE 6.5/10 – Classy past run, but rushed return is a flag
TICKLING 5.5/10 – Some upside, fair debut
MALPEQUE 4.5/10 – Needs to show more; stable angle gives a boost
Others 3/10 or below – Significant improvement needed



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🧮 Tissue Estimate

SHAKAZIA – 11/10

LAVENDER BREEZE – 3/1

SINDRIA – 13/2

EASTERN PEACE – 10/1

TICKLING – 25/1

Others – 33/1+



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📝 Summary

SHAKAZIA brings the best form and showed grit when second at Naas after traffic issues – the hood and tongue combination stays on, and improvement is very likely. LAVENDER BREEZE is respected on debut for a yard that means business in these races, and her barrier trial win reads well. SINDRIA looks a long-term prospect but can’t be ignored each-way if 10/1+. EASTERN PEACE has talent but the turnaround from a below-par reappearance is tight.

This looks like Shakazia’s race to lose, with Lavender Breeze the obvious threat if the fav fluffs her lines again.