Pace Forecast: Extreme | Bias: Prominent normally favoured, but likely strong pace may flip this


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🔢 Ratings Foundation

Top Adjusted TFR: Nakasero (84)

Others in the 80–83 range: Ferrybank, Showhound, Clonmacash, Racing Royalty, Finsceal Annie



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🧭 Race Conditions Match

Trip: Nakasero, Free Solo, Finsceal Annie and Prince of Eyeries all proven over 7f–1m.

Going: No strong concerns; many handle good to firm.

Track Suitability: Ferrybank, Clonmacash, and James Henry all have placed course form.

Draw: Large field, no confirmed bias, so assessment pivots more on run style.



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⚖️ Tactical Shape / Fit

Strong pace forecast suggests those normally held up or racing mid-div may benefit.

Front-runners like Nakasero, Clonmacash, and Browned Off could be compromised.

Holds-up or mid-division closers like Racing Royalty, Cordouan, and Finsceal Annie likely better suited if tempo plays out as predicted.



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📉 Form & Fitness Profile

Nakasero needed the run on stable debut (first since leaving Halford/Collins), fitness expected to improve today.

Racing Royalty returns from a 227-day break – if ready, has an ideal setup.

Finsceal Annie disappointed last time but returns to 7f and regains cheekpieces – prior runs behind Free Solo franked.

Cordouan eye-catching fifth last time, stayed on from too far back – looks primed.

Clonmacash and Showhound both poor LTO but had excuses; earlier form competitive.



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🧬 Connections & Intent

Hot yards: W. McCreery (Mogwli), Ciaran Murphy (Finsceal Annie – Smart Stat: +£30 to £1 level stake)

Interesting jockey bookings: Shane Foley on James Henry (course winner); D.W. O’Connor retained for Racing Royalty.

Timeform comment flag: Racing Royalty well treated if ready, Nakasero sharper today.



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🧨 Market & Setup Watch

Live Market: Nakasero was around 6/1 early, possibly short enough given the pace risks.

Potential overlays: Cordouan, Finsceal Annie, Racing Royalty

Gear changes: Nakasero now in tongue tie; cheekpieces back for Finsceal Annie; blinkers on Camachero again.



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📂 Extra Angles

Five runners with course form: Ferrybank, James Henry, Showhound, Clonmacash, Browned Off

Upgrades: Cordouan, Racing Royalty both shaped better than result LTO

Exposure: Scarlet Widow, Hugo’s Girl, Loaded Quiver remain lightly raced relative to field



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📊 Contender Ratings (out of 10)

Horse Rating Notes

Nakasero 7 High mark, fair return last time, but early pace scenario risky
Racing Royalty 7 Laid out for this? Strong finisher with ideal pace setup
Finsceal Annie 7 Strong back form, trip ideal, cheekpieces back, value at 12s
Cordouan 6.5 Caught the eye LTO, fair draw, potential improver
Clonmacash 6 Will be up there early, chance if not too hot up front
Free Solo 6 Honest and consistent, but weight and draw a concern
Showhound 5.5 Has placed at the Curragh, but bounce back needed
James Henry 5.5 Course form and solid run last time, if repeating it
Mags 5 Flopped LTO, but beat Nakasero in the past
Camachero 5 Lightly raced, blinkers helped LTO, but draw awkward
Scarlet Widow 5 Poor latest but prior second was fair
Hugo’s Girl 5 Consistent AW form, needs a good trip
Ferrybank 4.5 Horse for course but very patchy overall form
Mogwli 4 Not dismissed, but needs to bounce back again
Una Matata 3 Nothing in last effort and profile flat
Loaded Quiver 3 UK form uninspiring now back in Ireland
Browned Off 2 Regular pace angle, but rating too low for this



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💷 Private Tissue Estimate (100% book)

6/1 Nakasero

13/2 Racing Royalty

7/1 Finsceal Annie

8/1 Cordouan

10/1 Clonmacash

11/1 Free Solo

14/1 Showhound

16/1 James Henry

16/1 Mags

16/1 Camachero

18/1 Hugo’s Girl

20/1 Scarlet Widow

20/1 Ferrybank

25/1 Mogwli

33/1 bar



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🔍 Final Filter

> “If this wins, will I feel I missed something obvious?”



Yes for Racing Royalty – form behind Rhythm King is good enough if ready.

Yes for Finsceal Annie – profile says back to 7f + cheekpieces are optimal.

Yes for Cordouan – profile screams sleeper.



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Summary:
With pace expected to collapse late, preference is for Racing Royalty, Finsceal Annie, and Cordouan, all of whom look tactically suited and value in mid-range of the market. Nakasero is respected but vulnerable if taken on. Each-way angles live if 5+ places offered.