Going: Good | Runners: 10 | Pace Forecast: Strong | Surface: Turf


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🔢 Ratings Foundation

Top Timeform Rating: MUSIC OF TARA (138), HOLD YOUR FORT (136), DE TELLERS FORTUNE (137)

Form Trends:

Music of Tara: Class drop, freshened, PU in G2 field at Cheltenham but prior Navan win solid.

Hold Your Fort: Strong current form; four chase wins this season, career-best LTO.

De Tellers Fortune: Improving 6yo, two wins in last 4, unexposed.




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🧭 Race Conditions Match

Trip Suitability: All key contenders stay 3m+.

Going: All proven on good ground; MUSIC OF TARA and DE TELLERS FORTUNE notably prefer it.

Course Form: THE BOLD THADY a previous winner here.

Weight: MUSIC OF TARA concedes plenty at 12-1, but class drop justifies.

Draw Bias: N/A (chase).



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⚖️ Race Shape / Tactical Fit

Pace Forecast: Strong – could blunt speed of front-runners.

Front-runners: HOLD YOUR FORT, DE TELLERS FORTUNE, MOLE COURT

Likely to Benefit: MUSIC OF TARA (waits), CRAVEN BAY (unknown over fences but proven stayer), PULL AGAIN GREEN (if they go too hard).



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📉 Form & Fitness Profile

MUSIC OF TARA: Pulled up in Kim Muir (G2), now class drop + 91-day break.

HOLD YOUR FORT: Career-best win latest; 7 lb rise fair but never won away from Newton Abbot.

DE TELLERS FORTUNE: Won last time, but PU on penultimate. Very lightly raced; upside.

CRAVEN BAY: Chase debut; solid hurdler form over staying trips.

G A HENTY: Pulled up final start; may need it after 244 days.

MOLE COURT: PU last time; dropped in trip, but patchy.

PIMLICO POINT / MILAN BRIDGE: Both pulled up last start; fitness and intent doubts.



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🧬 Connections & Intent

Trainer Form:

Gordon Elliott (MUSIC OF TARA) – sends just one, big drop in grade.

Dan Skelton (G A HENTY) – hot form.

Nicky Henderson (DE TELLERS FORTUNE) – strong £17.25 profit stat when sending sole chaser.

Ben Pauling (MOLE COURT) – 21% strike rate at Worcester.


Jockey Upgrades: Sean Bowen (MUSIC OF TARA), James Bowen (DE TELLERS), both reliable.

One-runners: Henderson, Sarah Humphrey (MILAN BRIDGE) – stable targeting?



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🧨 Market & Setup

Early Market: Music of Tara, De Tellers Fortune, Hold Your Fort around 4/1.

Go Day Candidates:

MUSIC OF TARA: Yes – class drop, fresh, good ground.

DE TELLERS FORTUNE: Maybe – PU two starts ago, but then won well.

HOLD YOUR FORT: Potential peaking – but track bias against him?




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📂 Extra Angles

Timeform “Horse in Focus”: HOLD YOUR FORT

Smart Stats: Nicky Henderson’s sole chaser: +£17.25 (DTF)

Unexposed Types: DE TELLERS FORTUNE (6yo, still improving)

Flags: None raised for negative behaviour.

Class Droppers: MUSIC OF TARA



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📊 Ratings & Value Assessment

Top 5 Rated (out of 10):

MUSIC OF TARA – 8.5 – Class drop, peak ratings, top connections.

HOLD YOUR FORT – 8 – Rock-solid recent form but Newton-only wins.

DE TELLERS FORTUNE – 7.5 – Upwardly mobile; pace setup may catch him out.

CRAVEN BAY – 6.5 – Interesting on chase debut if ready.

MOLE COURT – 5.5 – Patchy, needs revival.


Others:

G A HENTY – 5

THE BOLD THADY – 5

PULL AGAIN GREEN – 4.5

PIMLICO POINT – 4

MILAN BRIDGE – 3.5



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🧾 Tissue Estimate (100% book)

4/1 MUSIC OF TARA

5/1 HOLD YOUR FORT

5/1 DE TELLERS FORTUNE

8/1 CRAVEN BAY

10/1 MOLE COURT

10/1 G A HENTY

14/1 THE BOLD THADY

16/1 PULL AGAIN GREEN

18/1 PIMLICO POINT

25/1 MILAN BRIDGE



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🔍 Final Filter

If Music Of Tara wins, it’ll feel obvious: class drop, top yard, solid hurdles/chase form, ground/trip both fine. Watch market for positive vibes.

Verdict: MUSIC OF TARA is the most appealing all things considered. HOLD YOUR FORT is peaking but must prove he’s not Newton-dependent. DE TELLERS FORTUNE has upside but could be found out by pace pressure.