€36,000, 3yo+, Good to Firm in places):


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🔢 Ratings Foundation

Top Timeform Adjusted Ratings:

ROYAL ZABEEL – 118

COMANCHE BRAVE – 117

MUTASARREF / NORWALK HAVOC – 116


Sectionals Insight: Race forecasted to be very strongly run, which enhances hold-up profiles (e.g. ROYAL ZABEEL, EAST HAMPTON).

Form Trends:

COMANCHE BRAVE: Progressive at 2 and further improved this season.

ROYAL ZABEEL: Consistent and improving, excuses last run.

MUTASARREF: Plateaued but still holding form well at 7.

ZODIAC BEAR: Unexposed, sectional winner LTO. Upward curve.




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🧭 Race Conditions Match

Trip: COMANCHE BRAVE ideally 7–8f; this is spot on.

Going: All key contenders proven on good or better.

Track: Course form for MUTASARREF (multiple wins) and NORWALK HAVOC.

Weight: No major imbalances – set weights.

Draw: Middle-to-wide draws fine here; no negative draw bias declared.



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⚖️ Tactical Shape / Fit

Pace Forecast: Very strong – likely to collapse front

Hurts: COMANCHE BRAVE, NORWALK HAVOC, VALIANT FORCE

Helps: ROYAL ZABEEL, EAST HAMPTON, MATAARIKI (if held up)


Prominent runners: Vulnerable unless exceptional travellers

Race shape fit: ROYAL ZABEEL is strongly favoured tactically.



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📉 Form & Fitness

Upgrades:

EAST HAMPTON: Sectional upgrade LTO

ROYAL ZABEEL: Excused Duke of York effort (poor position)

COPACABANA SANDS: Conceded first run and still won LTO


Fitness Queries:

EASY: Only 1 run back after 11-month break

BLUEDRUM: Well below form off absence

COWARDOFTHECOUNTY: May need a stiffer test




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🧬 Connections & Intent

Jockey Uplift: Ryan Moore on COMANCHE BRAVE – positive

Trainer Form:

J. Harrington, J. P. O’Brien, and A. Murray all hot


Multiple runners: Lyons (MUTASARREF, ONE SMACK MAC) – possible team play

Trainer Trends: Lyons has won this 3x in past 10 years



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🧨 Market & Setup

Market Signals:

EAST HAMPTON – in-runner shortener LTO (under 25%)


“Go Day” signs:

ROYAL ZABEEL – trip, ground, and race shape ideal

EAST HAMPTON – shape-up run; strong each-way angle

ZODIAC BEAR – big upgrade LTO, unexposed




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📂 Extra Angles

Timeform Flags:

COMANCHE BRAVE – runner to beat

EAST HAMPTON – “Horse in Focus”

ZODIAC BEAR – sectional standout


Smart Stats:

Adrian Murray (VALIANT FORCE) +£236 single runner ROI

Lyons runners in this race have strong historic record




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📊 Groupings & Value Estimate

Grouped by Adjusted Ratings (with fitness/form applied):

118–116 (Win group): ROYAL ZABEEL, COMANCHE BRAVE, MUTASARREF

115–112 (Place group): COPACABANA SANDS, EAST HAMPTON, ZODIAC BEAR

111 and below (Outsiders unless shape swings): BLUEDRUM, EASY, NORWALK HAVOC


Private Tissue (100%):

10/3 COMANCHE BRAVE

6/1 ROYAL ZABEEL

7/1 MUTASARREF

8/1 ZODIAC BEAR

9/1 EAST HAMPTON

10/1 COPACABANA SANDS

14/1 others



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🔍 Final Filter

✅ If ROYAL ZABEEL wins off the back of that York run with this pace collapse, it’s no surprise.
✅ If COMANCHE BRAVE is too close to a burn-up, that’s foreseeable.
✅ EAST HAMPTON is a sneaky place contender. ZODIAC BEAR still has upside.