1. Race Conditions

Race: 19:00 HAMILTON PARK – EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (C4)

Distance: 6f 6y

Surface: Turf | Going: Good

Runners: 6 declared | Pace Forecast: Very Weak

Draw Bias: N/A, no strong historical lane effect here

Tactics: With a weak pace, race position could prove crucial—likely to suit those who can sit handy or quicken well off a slow gallop.



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2. Runner-by-Runner Assessment

(1) SNAAFY (David Loughnane / Connor Planas, 3lb claimer)

Pace: Not likely to lead based on profile.

Breeding: First foal of a 5.5f 2yo winner—some early pace in pedigree.

Trainer: 25/1 debutants have shown +£26 LSP—capable first time out.

Fitness: Debutant, likely forward but not in a hot yard.

Rating: 5/10 – Place squeak if breaking smartly, market may guide.


(2) TRY STORM CAT (Charlie Johnston / Jason Hart)

Pace: Led last time and should be prominent again.

Last Run: Third at Ponte (6f, G/F), led to 1f pole; fair effort, solid time figure.

Breeding: Deep Impact x Miesque family – stamina-laced class pedigree.

Trainer Form: Red-hot currently, 30-day +win% stable.

Rating: 8/10 – Could make all if allowed to dictate, clear threat.


(3) BETTER AND BETTER (Adrian Keatley / PJ McDonald)

Pace: Tracked pace at Carlisle, travelled well.

Last Run: Neck second over 5f at Carlisle, closing late; up in trip should help.

Breeding: Dam related to UAE Jewel, 7f-10f types—will stay.

Trainer Form: Cold (flagged); however, runner looked fit and forward.

Adjusted TFR: 85p – strongest figure in field.

Rating: 9/10 – Proven form, fitter than most, and up in trip suits.


(4) MUDDY NORA (Seb Spencer / Dale Swift)

Pace: Showed little on debut.

Last Run: 9th of 10 at Redcar, well beaten.

Breeding: Family of One Cool Cat; stamina not lacking but debut was poor.

Trainer: Very low win %; stable cold.

Rating: 2/10 – Needs massive improvement; hard to recommend.


(5) LET ME SHOW YOU (Michael Dods / Connor Beasley)

Pace: Unknown – no run data.

Breeding: Some precocity on dam’s side, sprinty 2yo relations.

Trainer: Cold yard, but noted +£16 LSP when sole runner on a card.

Fitness: May need this debut.

Rating: 4/10 – Interesting stat but cautious view on debut effort.


(6) WELBURY (Edward Bethell / Callum Rodriguez)

Pace: Unknown – debutant.

Breeding: From a good family (Scottish Anthem, Healing Power); stamina for 7f+.

Trainer: Hot stable, especially with 2yos; can ready them first time.

Rating: 7/10 – Yard form and pedigree suggest solid run likely.



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3. Ratings out of 10

Horse Rating (/10)

BETTER AND BETTER 9
TRY STORM CAT 8
WELBURY 7
SNAAFY 5
LET ME SHOW YOU 4
MUDDY NORA 2



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4. Private Tissue Estimate

Horse Odds

BETTER AND BETTER 11/8
TRY STORM CAT 5/2
WELBURY 9/2
SNAAFY 12/1
LET ME SHOW YOU 16/1
MUDDY NORA 50/1


Tissue built on strength of debut efforts, trainer trends, pedigree influences, and adjusted Timeform figures.


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5. Summary

Most Likely Winner: BETTER AND BETTER – Strong form already in the book, travelled fluently and bred to improve for 6f+.

Main Danger: TRY STORM CAT – Made the running on debut, Johnston yard flying, could control a weakly run race.

Interesting Newcomer: WELBURY – Good yard, encouraging pedigree, worth watching for support.