Going: Good | Surface: Turf | Declared runners: 8
Pace Forecast: Weak
Draw Bias: No strong bias indicated at this trip.

🔹 Specific Pace Hint: Prominent racers tend to fare better in 6f handicaps here, so those who can sit handy—like IRIS DANCER and THE GAY BLADE—are expected to be favoured. The steady pace could blunt the finishing kick of hold-up horses such as FLOWSTATE.


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🔍 Runner-by-Runner Analysis


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1. FLOWSTATE (IRE)

TFR: 83 | Last Run: 4th of 8 at Catterick (5f, Good, 14/1)
Trainer: David O’Meara | Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Tongue tie tried for first time. Should improve for return to 6f. Acts on good going. Close to peak mark and might not get strong pace to aim at.
🟠 Pace Angle: Likely to be held up – may not be ideally placed
🔢 Rating: 6/10


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2. VINCE LOMBARDI

TFR: 79 | Last Run: Last of 7 at Catterick (6f, Good)
Trainer: Seb Spencer | Jockey: Dale Swift
Has tactical speed and is best when up with the pace. Below form this season, and now 0-4 for new yard. Fit, but inconsistent and down the ratings.
🟠 Pace Angle: Will race close up – tactically sound
🔢 Rating: 5/10


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3. BELSITO (GER)

❌ Non-runner


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4. HAVANA RUM (IRE)

TFR: 76 | Last Run: 3rd of 8 at Carlisle (5.8f, Soft)
Trainer: Richard Fahey | Jockey: Oisin James Orr
Well-backed latest and ran best race this year. Handles varying ground. Draw okay, but needs a strong pace and may again be delivered late.
🟠 Pace Angle: Held up – may need luck
🔢 Rating: 6/10


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5. MOYOLA

TFR: ? | Last Run: 7th of 12 here over C&D
Trainer: Lucinda Russell | Jockey: Warren Fentiman (5)
Often slowly away, better than result last time when denied a run. Comes with risks attached but still lightly raced for yard and handles 6f well.
🟠 Pace Angle: Likely off the pace – needs clear run
🔢 Rating: 5/10


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6. TRAVIS

TFR: 79 | Last Run: 2nd of 9 at Ayr (6f, G/F, 5/1)
Trainer: Geoffrey Harker | Jockey: Sam James
Responded well last time and now returns to ideal trip. Needs to prove consistency but tactically well drawn to sit handy again.
🟠 Pace Angle: Can race in midfield – should be well placed
🔢 Rating: 7/10


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7. IRIS DANCER

TFR: 79+ | Last Run: 4th of 12 here over C&D (1¾l)
Trainer: Tristan Davidson | Jockey: Andrew Mullen
Multiple C&D winner (6 times). Ran her best race for a while last week. Will benefit from a steady pace if sitting handy. Still on workable mark.
🟠 Pace Angle: Can track pace – one of best suited to run style
🔢 Rating: 8/10


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8. THE GAY BLADE

TFR: 82 | Last Run: 2nd of 8 at Carlisle (6.9f, G/S, 7/2)
Trainer: Iain Jardine | Jockey: Mohammed Lyes Tabti (5)
In top form and unlucky not to win latest; checked at key stage. Returns to 6f which suits, and rated to go very close. Prominent style ideal in this.
🟠 Pace Angle: Prominent racer – ideal setup
🔢 Rating: 9/10


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🧮 Private Tissue (100%)

The Gay Blade – 3/1

Iris Dancer – 4/1

Travis – 6/1

Havana Rum – 7/1

Flowstate – 7/1

Moyola – 10/1

Vince Lombardi – 12/1



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✅ Verdict

🏆 Most Likely Winner: THE GAY BLADE – peaking at the right time, ideally placed, unlucky last time.

⚠️ Main Danger: IRIS DANCER – C&D specialist who ran her best race of the year last week.

💰 Value EW (8 runners): TRAVIS – back in form and well positioned tactically.