unner-by-Runner Analysis


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🟩 1. PERFECT JUDGEMENT – Rating: 7/10
Trainer: Stephen Thorne | Jockey: J Kearney (3) | Draw: 3

Positives: Strong recent form (60% win/place last 5), reliable stats at the trip (43%), and good Timeform figure base. Thorne is 28% at this trip and 26% over 90 days.

Concerns: Ground possibly livelier than ideal, and handicapping scope may be tightening.

Pedigree Note: By Inns Of Court, his progeny have proven capable at a mile.



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🟨 2. BELLAPHINA – Rating: 6.5/10
Trainer: J A Kinsella | Jockey: J J G Ryan (3) | Draw: 3

Positives: Strong breeding stats (Pips Pride dam line), good record on similar going (42%), and reliable recent place form.

Negatives: Lacks consistency; stats in career and distance are weaker, and trainer lacks standout metrics.



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🟩 3. NOCTURNAL – Rating: 5/10
Trainer: Miss Natalia Lupini | Jockey: W M Lordan | Draw: 0

Positives: By Night Of Thunder, with solid stats across going, class and trainer/jockey. Lordan is 27% 7-day and 22% track.

Negatives: Career strike rate poor (25%), no recent form indicators, and appears inconsistent. Likely outclassed at this level.



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🟩 4. ANVIKA – Rating: 6/10
Trainer: Sheila Lavery | Jockey: R C Colgan | Draw: 0

Positives: Dam sire Giants Causeway boosts stamina; Lavery 11% at Limerick.

Negatives: No standout figures for current form; patchy across class and trip. Pedigree fine but output moderate so far. May need softer ground.



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🟩 5. EXPOUND – Rating: 8.5/10
Trainer: Denis Hogan | Jockey: J M Sheridan | Draw: 0

Positives: Best all-round statistical profile. Recent form solid (67% last 3), excellent going (42%) and distance (50%) performance, strong trainer form (29% 7-day).

Negatives: Slight concern about race position/pacing on this course – likely to be mid-div, so needs clear run.

Pedigree Note: Ulysses x Shamardal gives strong middle-distance staying credentials.



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🟨 6. FACETHEPUCKOUT – Rating: 5.5/10
Trainer: M D O’Callaghan | Jockey: C T Keane | Draw: 0

Positives: Top jockey on board in Keane. Some good speed figures, and sire (Excelebration) is a positive for this trip/ground.

Negatives: Inconsistent, and Timeform pace hint doesn’t suit; profile suggests more speed than stamina.



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🟥 7. SYLKIE – Rating: 4/10
Trainer: Daniel John Howard | Jockey: R P Cleary | Draw: 0

Positives: Favoured in market previously (67% record as fav), and breeding by Starspangledbanner (speed bias).

Negatives: No form figures of note; profile stats consistently below par. Hard to make a solid case on exposed form.



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Private Tissue Odds (100% Book)

Horse Rating Odds

Expound 8.5 9/4
Perfect Judgement 7 4/1
Bellaphina 6.5 5/1
Anvika 6 6/1
Facethepuckout 5.5 15/2
Nocturnal 5 10/1
Sylkie 4 16/1



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Summary & Verdict

Most Likely Winner: Expound

Ticks every statistical box – going, trip, class, trainer form – and looks well placed to land this if replicating recent form.

J M Sheridan gets a good tune out of him, and the Ulysses/Shamardal cross suggests progression at 1m on decent ground is within range.


Dangers:

Perfect Judgement is the one still improving and has recent form to match. Trainer is quietly in form at this trip.

Bellaphina isn’t far behind – has pace and strong breeding indicators – and could be a pace angle if ridden more prominently.


Outsider to Note:

Nocturnal could surprise if putting it together, especially under a rider in excellent form. But it’s speculative.


Final Verdict:
Expound is a confident selection in a tight-knit field. With only 7 runners, no each-way play, but watch for any late market support on Bellaphina or Perfect Judgement.