🔢 Ratings Foundation

Top Adjusted Ratings:

🟩 Pink Oxalis – 92

🟩 Dahlia Noir – 90

🟩 Narlita – 91

🟨 Thrifty Of Digby – 89

🟨 Tachos – 87


Form Trends:

🔼 Pink Oxalis, Thrifty Of Digby, Dahlia Noir, Auburn Avenue, Summer Snow

➖ Tachos, Shaool, Hurricane Helen

🔽 Mallavelly, Super Exceed, Moonhall Church, Pink Socks, Baltray Lady




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🧭 Race Conditions Match

Trip Suitability: Most key players (e.g. Pink Oxalis, Thrifty Of Digby, Dahlia Noir, Summer Snow) are proven at or around 9–10f.

Going: No major red flags for top-rated runners. Dahlia Noir, Summer Snow, and Thrifty Of Digby all have form on good or better.

Course Suitability: Thrifty Of Digby is a C&D winner.

Weight vs Form: Narlita and Auburn Avenue are well treated on old form.

Draw Bias: Neutral to slight preference low-to-mid; Pink Oxalis (stall 3), Tachos (7), Thrifty Of Digby (10) fine.



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⚖️ Race Shape / Tactical Fit

Pace Forecast: Strong (per Timeform)

Likely Scenario: Could collapse late. Front-runners like Thrifty Of Digby may be compromised.

Hold-up Advantage: Pink Oxalis, Auburn Avenue, Summer Snow may benefit from a collapse scenario.

Leaders/Pace Conflict: Yes – Baltray Lady, Thrifty Of Digby, Moonhall Church all go forward. Suits closers.



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📉 Form & Fitness Profile

Pink Oxalis: Unlucky last time, form working out.

Dahlia Noir: Progressive and ready now.

Thrifty Of Digby: Up 4lb, had ideal trip last time.

Tachos: Backed it up off a break – respected.

Mallavelly, Super Exceed, Baltray Lady: questionable fitness profiles or bounce risk.



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🧬 Connections & Intent

Stephen Thorne (Pink Oxalis) – strong 21% strike rate at trip range.

Donnacha O’Brien (Dahlia Noir) – positive trend; usually has them ready second/third up.

Jessica Harrington (Thrifty Of Digby) – “go day” vibe last time.

Joseph O’Brien double-handed – Baltray Lady pace angle, Annie’s Angel unexposed.



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🧨 Market & Setup

Pink Oxalis: solid support through season, could rebound.

Thrifty Of Digby: won when fancied, not unbacked now.

Dahlia Noir: fair value, holds form.

Auburn Avenue: 8/1 shows respect, previous Curragh third franked.

Summer Snow: market mover LTO, now exposed.



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📂 Extra Angles

Flags:

Tachos: “Horse for course”

Thrifty Of Digby: Timeform Flag, hot trainer

Pink Oxalis: Smart Stats trainer %


Unexposed:

Annie’s Angel, Dahlia Noir


Franked Form: Pink Oxalis’ April win boosted.



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📊 Groupings & Value Assessment

Top Tier (92–90):

Pink Oxalis – 8.5/10

Dahlia Noir – 8/10

Narlita – 7.5/10


Next Tier (89–87):

Thrifty Of Digby – 7.5/10

Summer Snow – 7/10

Auburn Avenue – 7/10

Tachos – 6.5/10


Dark Horses:

Shaool – 6/10

Quatrain – 6/10

Annie’s Angel – 6/10 (needs more evidence)


Outsiders / Regressing:

Super Exceed, Moonhall Church, Pink Socks, Baltray Lady – 4.5 to 5.5/10


🧮 Rough Private Tissue (100% book):

Pink Oxalis – 11/2

Dahlia Noir – 13/2

Thrifty Of Digby – 13/2

Narlita – 15/2

Auburn Avenue – 15/2

Summer Snow – 8/1

Tachos – 10/1

Others 14/1+



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🔍 Final Filter & Summary

This strongly run fillies’ handicap looks tailor-made for a closer with tactical pace and proven 9f+ stamina. Pink Oxalis checks almost every box and was poorly positioned last time when aiming for a hat-trick. With strong Smart Stats and no fitness concerns, she edges favouritism.

Dahlia Noir and Auburn Avenue are upwardly mobile and likely to be staying on strongly. Thrifty Of Digby and Summer Snow are respected but may have had ideal setups last time.

Verdict:
🏇 Pink Oxalis – Value standout and tactically well set
🎯 Each-way possibles: Dahlia Noir, Auburn Avenue

Let me know if you’d like draw/pace heatmaps or shortlist overlays vs live market odds.