1m1f | 0–60 Handicap | 3yo+ | €7,200 | Turf (Good–Good to Firm in places)
Pace Forecast: Weak
Draw Bias: Not significant
Runners: 17 declared


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🔢 Ratings Foundation

Top Timeform Adjusted Rating: Harbanaker (71), Roderick (70+), Shining Aitch (67+), Limestone Red (67), Elvetham (68)

Recent Timefigures / Sectionals: Harbanaker and Roderick come out best on balance. El Bello and Starting Monday have respectable back-end splits.

Form Trend:

✅ Improving: Roderick (2nd of 20 latest, closing), Saxon Kingdom (win + 2nd last 2)

🔁 Flat: Harbanaker (won last time but exposed)

🔻 Regressive: Obama Army, Gatsby Cap, Thegooseiscooked




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🧭 Race Conditions Match

Trip Suitability:

✅ Confirmed stayers at 9f+: Harbanaker, Roderick, Ledger, Limestone Red


Ground Suitability:

✅ Proven/likely on good-firm: Roderick, El Bello, Jurality


Course Layout Match:

✅ Leopardstown record: Harbanaker (C&D winner), Smaoineann Sile (2024 C&D win)


Weight vs Frame/Form:

✅ Harbanaker up 5lb but still well treated

⚠️ El Bello carries 10-2 – potentially vulnerable




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⚖️ Race Shape / Tactical Fit

Likely Pace: Weak

Favoured Style: Prominent racers usually best at this trip

Suited Runners:

✅ Roderick: can race handy

✅ Saxon Kingdom: has led or tracked lead recently

❌ Harbanaker: often needs pace to aim at, may not get it


No obvious front-runner: El Bello or Ledger may default to pace-setting



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📉 Form & Fitness Profile

Recent Run Context:

✅ Roderick (2nd of 20, just denied), Saxon Kingdom (won last time)

✅ Harbanaker (won C&D latest, travelled well)

❌ Elvetham (4/1 flop latest), Smaoineann Sile (tailed off on return)


Layoff Fitness Watch:

✅ Roderick off 45 days (fit); Starting Monday off 48 days

❌ Thegooseiscooked (120 days), Smaoineann Sile (38 days, tailed off)




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🧬 Connections & Intent

Trainer Form (7–30 Day Window):

✅ William Harvey (Harbanaker): 1/1 with this horse

✅ P. Sweeney (Roderick): 1 placing from last 2 runners

⚠️ McConnell (Gatsby Cap, Smaoineann): runners underperforming


Jockey Upgrades:

✅ Shane Foley for Roderick = strong booking

✅ G. M. Ryan retains ride on Saxon Kingdom (won last time)


Stable Angle:

Adrian McGuinness (Obama Army) and Paul Flynn (Jurality) often show market tells




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🧨 Market & Setup

Potential “Go Day” Candidates:

✅ Roderick (up in trip again, good jockey, well-handicapped)

✅ Harbanaker (won well latest, travels strongly)


Class Drop / Headgear Switch:

🔁 Little change bar consistent tongue tie wearers (Roderick, Harbanaker)




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📂 Extra Angles

Timeform Flags:

✅ Harbanaker: positive comment (can follow up)

✅ Roderick: strong back form, narrowly denied in big field


Smart Stats / Past Winners:

Recent winners of this race include big-priced sorts and horses on the up (Saxon Kingdom profile fits)




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📊 Groupings & Value Assessment

Tier Horses Lbs from Top Rough Tissue Odds

🟩 Group 1 Roderick, Harbanaker Top-rated 9/2 – 5/1
🟨 Group 2 Saxon Kingdom, Starting Monday ~3–5 lbs 13/2 – 15/2
🟦 Group 3 El Bello, Jurality, Ledger, Elvetham 5–7 lbs 10/1 – 14/1
⛔ No Hoper Thegooseiscooked, Vervain, Lisabetta >8 lbs 25/1+



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📝 Ratings Out of 10

Horse Score

Roderick 9
Harbanaker 8.5
Saxon Kingdom 7.5
Starting Monday 7
Ledger 6.5
El Bello 6
Jurality 6
Elvetham 6
Limestone Red 5.5
Obama Army 5
Shining Aitch 5
Gatsby Cap 4.5
Smaoineann Sile 4.5
Thegooseiscooked 4
Vervain 3.5
Lisabetta 3.5
Vovatia 3.5



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🧮 Private Tissue Estimate (100%)

Roderick – 9/2

Harbanaker – 5/1

Saxon Kingdom – 13/2

Starting Monday – 15/2

Ledger – 10/1

El Bello – 12/1

Jurality – 14/1

Elvetham – 16/1

Others – 20/1+



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🔍 Final Filter Summary

This looks set up for a closer with tactical speed from mid-division. The lack of pace enhances Roderick’s claims – he’s got strong course form, a handy run style, and a solid closing effort latest. Harbanaker has a good win under his belt and looks to be thriving, though he may find this pace scenario slightly unfavourable unless they go a bit quicker than expected. Saxon Kingdom is upwardly mobile but has to show it again under pressure. Starting Monday can pick up pieces late.