🔢 Ratings Foundation

Horse TF Adjusted Rating Form Trend

JANWORTH 116 🚀 Improving
HELLO CELLO 106 ↗️ Upward spike
OUR LIL 105 📈 Progressive
BACK IN THE BAY 104 🚀 Breakthrough
REMEMBER MOI 103 Flat
JAMAICAINE 109 (old) ❓ Unclear
PENTHOUSE POPPET 99 Regressive
CHARLOTTE SQUARE – Uncompetitive



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🧭 Race Conditions Match

Trip: All proven or likely stayers at 2½m.

Ground: Mostly exposed to good/good to soft. JANWORTH, OUR LIL and HELLO CELLO proven.

Course: OUR LIL a C&D winner. BACK IN THE BAY has Fakenham form (similar sharp track).

Weight: Topweights carry 12-0 to 11-8 – all manageable at this class.

Draw: N/A for hurdles.



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⚖️ Tactical Fit

Pace forecast: Even

Front-runner competition: BACK IN THE BAY made all at Fakenham; JANWORTH often handy. OUR LIL sits close up.

Favoured run styles: Prominent likely best – no confirmed trailblazer but minimal hold-up types.

Verdict: JANWORTH and OUR LIL are tactically well-positioned.



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📉 Form & Fitness Profile

JANWORTH – Slammed field before falling late; in form; bounce possible but trainer in form.

OUR LIL – Solid recent form, back up in trip suits.

BACK IN THE BAY – Won easily latest, but form of race weak.

HELLO CELLO – Ran best race latest after a break; may improve again.

REMEMBER MOI – Poor strike rate; flatter since early spring.

JAMAICAINE – Unexposed but hard to trust after 400-day layoff.

PENTHOUSE POPPET / CHARLOTTE SQUARE – Little to recommend.



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🧬 Connections & Intent

Jamie Snowden (JANWORTH): 🔥 Trainer in form.

Dan Skelton (OUR LIL): 20% strike rate in summer.

James Owen (BACK IN THE BAY): 21% strike rate at today’s trip range.

Georgina Nicholls: profitable to £1 LSP when sole runner on card (REMEMBER MOI).

Harry Fry: HELLO CELLO ran well fresh off break – intent not clear but scope to build.



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🧨 Market & Setup

JANWORTH: In-form and respected; bounced once before off quick return.

OUR LIL: Reliable, strong yard.

HELLO CELLO: Short break again; improving type.

REMEMBER MOI: Market may overreact to Smart Stat angle.

JAMAICAINE: Market vibes essential – revival not out of question but risky.



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📂 Extra Angles

Timeform “Horse in Focus”: JANWORTH

Recent form franked? Not strongly – most wins come in weak races.

Unexposed angle? OUR LIL (only 4yo), and HELLO CELLO still relatively unexposed.

Headgear note: OUR LIL retains cheekpieces; BACK IN THE BAY had tongue tie early season.



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📊 Groupings & Value Assessment (by Adjusted Ratings ± Timeform confidence)

Top Group (116–105)

JANWORTH (116) – 9/10

HELLO CELLO (106) – 7/10

OUR LIL (105) – 8/10

BACK IN THE BAY (104) – 6/10


Mid Group (103–99)

REMEMBER MOI (103) – 4/10

JAMAICAINE (old 109) – 3/10 (needs market watch)


Low Group (<99)

PENTHOUSE POPPET – 2/10

CHARLOTTE SQUARE – 1/10



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🎯 Private Tissue Estimate

Horse Tissue Odds

JANWORTH 2/1
OUR LIL 4/1
HELLO CELLO 6/1
BACK IN THE BAY 13/2
REMEMBER MOI 14/1
JAMAICAINE 16/1
Others 25/1+



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🔍 Summary

This shapes up as JANWORTH’s race to lose – she’d bolted up but for falling at Southwell and is tactically versatile. Provided that effort hasn’t left a mark, she holds strong claims. OUR LIL is respected with a solid, improving profile and a good C&D win last time. HELLO CELLO is a value play for place terms if building again. BACK IN THE BAY won weak form but may not get an uncontested lead here.

📌 Watch the market on JAMAICAINE – could be a “go” day if supported late after a long layoff.