🔢 Ratings Foundation

Top Timeform Adjusted Rating: DUTCH FINALE – 79

Others close up: H KEY LAILS (77), QUEEN OF THE ROSES (76), THOMAS EQUINAS (75)

Recent timefigures: Dutch Finale posted a strong winning figure at Lingfield. Queen of the Roses is a soft upgrader on maiden win, Rapido Girl’s latest run was also an improvement.


Form Trends:

Improving: Dutch Finale, Queen of the Roses

Flat: Thomas Equinas, Gundogan

Regressive/patchy: H Key Lails, Nubough, Wild Embers



—

🧭 Race Conditions Match

Trip suitability:

Dutch Finale shapes like 7f will suit

H Key Lails, Thomas Equinas, Nubough all proven at 7f here


Going/surface: All have proven AW or Polytrack form

Course/undulations: Several course winners: Thomas Equinas (4x C&D), Nubough (CD), H Key Lails (C)

Weight: All look manageable at current ratings

Draw: No strong draw bias noted (8 runners, wide stalls manageable)



—

⚖️ Race Shape / Tactical Fit

Pace Forecast: Strong

Front-runners: Nubough, H Key Lails

Likely suited: Dutch Finale (closer), Rapido Girl (stalker)

Potential negatives: Those who need a soft lead or dislike pace pressure – Nubough may struggle to dictate



—

📉 Form & Fitness Profile

Dutch Finale: Progressive profile, readily won latest; looks a proper improver

Queen of the Roses: Potential dark horse, open to progress on handicap debut

Thomas Equinas: Reliable at this venue, but vulnerable to less exposed types

H Key Lails: Hasn’t been seen since Feb, but wasn’t disgraced when last out wide

Rapido Girl: Solid return to form latest, not dismissed if repeats

Wild Embers: Patchy; better form in maidens, 14-day turnaround



—

🧬 Connections & Intent

Trainer in form: George Boughey (Dutch Finale) – warm

Jockey upgrade: Pat Cosgrave on favourite (38% on favs)

Notable cold yards: Des Donovan, Michael Attwater

Appleby runner: Queen of the Roses – interestingly campaigned



—

🧨 Market & Setup

Dutch Finale: Strong support likely (5/4 early fav)

Queen of the Roses: May be a quiet gamble if stable confidence

H Key Lails: Layoff over 100 days, check for support

Nubough: Recent CD winner but may be vulnerable in deeper race



—

📂 Extra Angles

Timeform Comment: Dutch Finale “made amends impressively” – clear horse in focus

Smart Stat: Cosgrave’s 38% strike rate on favourites bolsters case

Breeding: Dutch Finale closely related to Significantly; Queen of the Roses out of a useful sprinting dam line



—

📊 Groupings & Tissue Odds Estimate

Grouped by strength (adjusted rating + profile):

1. Dutch Finale (79) – 5/4


2. Queen of the Roses (76) – 9/2


3. Thomas Equinas / H Key Lails (75–77) – 6/1


4. Rapido Girl / Nubough – 8/1


5. Gundogan – 10/1


6. Wild Embers – 14/1




—

🔟 Runner Ratings out of 10

Horse Score

Dutch Finale 9
Queen of the Roses 7.5
Thomas Equinas 7
H Key Lails 6.5
Rapido Girl 6.5
Nubough 6
Gundogan 5.5
Wild Embers 4.5



—

🔍 Final Filter & Race Setup Summary

This should be run at a solid clip, with Nubough and H Key Lails pressing on early. That pace is likely to suit DUTCH FINALE, who impressed last week and looks the most progressive. Queen of the Roses is a very interesting handicap debutante with top pedigree. Thomas Equinas could outrun odds back over his favoured C&D, while Rapido Girl has minor place claims again.