1. Race Conditions & Tactical Overview

A premier handicap over a sharp 7f on good ground. With 19 declared, the field size is large enough to create significant traffic risks and strongly emphasise tactical positioning. The pace forecast is extreme, with several habitual front-runners engaged, including Chicago Fireball, Pinar Del Rio, and Storm Piece. This sets up a likely collapse scenario mid-to-late straight.

Prominent racing types typically fare well here, but given the anticipated early burn-up, strong travellers and closers with proven finishing speed are expected to come to the fore.


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2. Contenders, Dangers, Outsiders & Profiles

Leading Contenders:

CHICAGO FIREBALL (TFR 110) – Smart performer in top handicaps, including a strong effort last time when seventh of 20 after forcing a strong pace. The extreme tempo could find him out late, but he’s a confirmed 7f horse with raw speed. Tactically vulnerable in this setup but well weighted.

FORT VEGA (TFR 109) – Consistent and well-treated. Beaten narrowly on each of last three starts, including a strong Leopardstown second. Slight ease in class here and handles all ground. Very solid profile at 7f and tactically versatile.

HEAVENLY POWER (TFR 106) – Two wins already this season and likely unlucky last time (met trouble and still kept on well). Fit, in form, and versatile regarding tactics. One of the best adjusted figures when given clear sailing.

MOLTOPHINO (TFR 103) – Has really taken off in 2025, winning decisively last time over 6f. Up in trip again but finishes powerfully and could get the race run to suit. Profile building impressively, but will need luck coming through.

KINGS TIME (TFR 104) – 2nd in this race on return, giving weight away. Hanging issues persist, but talent is evident. Can travel strongly into races. One of the more dangerous closers, but racing style demands precision.

HIGHTIMEYOUWON (TFR 104+) – In top form, scoring at Cork last time and thriving in smaller fields. Now back in a big one, likely to be buried mid-pack and needs pace to collapse. Strong finisher.


Main Dangers & Watchlist Horses:

GOAL EXCEEDED (TFR 103) – Impressive at the Curragh in a big field, travelling strongly and finishing with a flourish. Only up 4 lb and looks to be improving again. Draw may be tricky but bang in form and appeals on momentum.

BARBAPAPA (TFR 104) – Caught the eye again last time, staying on well in a messy race behind Moltophino. Has options tactically and is reliable. Each-way angle.

PINAR DEL RIO (TFR 105) – Runner-up twice this spring. Front-runner who may struggle to get across here but is tough and consistent. Not ruled out for a place.

STORM PIECE (TFR 98) – 3yo with a progressive profile but up markedly in class. Prominent racer who may get swallowed if the pace is frantic. Lacks experience in this calibre of race.


Interesting Outsiders:

STAYSOUND SUSIE (TFR 107) – Continues to shape well and possibly still on the upgrade. Met trouble last time and stayed on late. Lightly raced and value angle.

APACHE OUTLAW (TFR 108) – Typically races close up. Form is solid, including a good run at Newcastle in April. May get run off his feet early but could stick on.

LOUGH LEANE (TFR 105) – Rebuilding after leaving Simcock yard. Slightly stretched at this trip now, but holding form and stamina could be an asset if they go too hard.


Hold-Up Types Needing Luck:

Heavenly Power, Kings Time, Goal Exceeded, Moltophino, and Hightimeyouwon all rely on a strong gallop and a clean path. Most will benefit from the pace scenario but need breaks in the straight.



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3. Runner Ratings Out of 10 (Track/Trip/Ground/Profile Suitability)

Horse Suitability /10

Fort Vega 8.5
Goal Exceeded 8.5
Heavenly Power 8
Moltophino 8
Kings Time 7.5
Barbapapa 7.5
Hightimeyouwon 7.5
Chicago Fireball 7
Pinar Del Rio 7
Staysound Susie 7
Apache Outlaw 6.5
Storm Piece 6
White Clover 6
Dunum (90+ days) 5.5
Tina’s Indian 5.5
Go Athletico 5.5
Lough Leane 5.5
I Am Superman 5
Dandyville 4.5


Watch for market signals on long-absent runners like Dunum and Go Athletico. Some are returning off 200+ day breaks.


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4. Each-Way Angles (19 runners)

Goal Exceeded (9/1 est.) – Powerful closer, improving.

Barbapapa (12/1 est.) – Finishing well last time and adaptable.

Hightimeyouwon (14/1 est.) – Has won 4 of last 5 and arrives sharp.

Staysound Susie (14/1 est.) – Can bounce back from unlucky run.



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5. Private Tissue Estimate (Top 10)

Horse Odds (Tissue)

Fort Vega 13/2
Goal Exceeded 9/1
Moltophino 9/1
Heavenly Power 10/1
Kings Time 10/1
Barbapapa 12/1
Hightimeyouwon 14/1
Staysound Susie 14/1
Chicago Fireball 16/1
Pinar Del Rio 16/1



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6. Summary

This looks a race to favour closers and tactically versatile types who can absorb the predicted end-to-end gallop. Fort Vega, Goal Exceeded, and Moltophino all profile strongly for this sort of challenge. Barbapapa and Hightimeyouwon look like solid each-way shouts at decent value, while Staysound Susie may be flying under the radar following a luckless effort.

A final market check is essential—especially for horses off long layoffs and those making seasonal returns like Dunum and Go Athletico, who may drift markedly or take support late.