1. Conditions, Draw & Pace

Distance/Going: 5 furlongs on good ground.

Field: 15 runners declared.

Pace Forecast: Extreme – multiple front-runners engaged, with pace likely to collapse late.

Draw Bias: No statistically proven advantage, although hold-up horses drawn wide may struggle unless the leaders overdo it.


Front-runners like Brigadier Kakuru and Mint Man could set it up for closers, particularly with the track riding quick and pace collapse likely.


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2. Contenders, Dangers & Notables

MINT MAN (Adj TFR 90)
Two strong runner-up finishes on the AW at Dundalk off higher marks. Back from a 135-day break but previously handled layoffs well. Profile fits the likely race shape if he can settle just off the speed. Strongest contender if fully fit.

BOLD OPTIMIST (89)
Course and distance winner who has shown recent form in similar company. May need to be delivered late in this, which suits the pace setup. Shorter turnaround of 6 days should keep him sharp.

BRIGADIER KAKURU (89)
Prominent racing style and best form on synthetic. Free-going sort who may do too much too early in this field. Strong form credentials, but race dynamics could compromise him.

NOUVEL ESPOIR (86)
Showed a big step forward latest at Navan, best of the closers in a field where the pace collapsed. Should get a similar setup here. Market support would strengthen confidence after only 6 days off.

NEZEEH (89)
Impressive winner two starts back at Cork. Last time at Listowel is excusable given a quick turnaround. Drawn OK and well suited to 5f around Cork.

STURLASSON (85)
Back to form last time at Navan. May race too close to the pace in this setup. Blinkers may help again but he needs to avoid getting drawn into a speed duel.

EMERALD HARMONY (86)
Better than result latest at Tipperary when denied a clear run. Has placed off higher ratings and is well drawn if ridden cold. Best with cut, but has run well on good.

MARY SHOELACES (89)
Won final start in 2024 and placed at the Curragh this term. Recent runs suggest she’s best fresh, and market may guide on intent.

VERIFIED (87)
Unexposed, and the Timeform note that the pace may suit is relevant. However, he has a slow-starting habit and would need things to fall perfectly. Dangerous if supported.

CAVALIER APPROACH / SHAWAAMEKH / NAVAL ENSIGN / REINFORCE / ART OF UNITY
Veteran profiles or out-of-form types. Some are coming off long breaks (Cavalier: 266 days, Shawaamekh: 228 days) and may need the run. Likely up against it in current context.


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3. Suitability Ratings (Score out of 10)

Each rating accounts for suitability to track, trip, pace scenario, recent form, and fitness.

Horse Score/10 Notes

MINT MAN 8 Well treated if fit, pace-suited
BOLD OPTIMIST 7 C&D winner, consistent, in good shape
BRIGADIER KAKURU 7 Strong form but vulnerable to burn-up
NOUVEL ESPOIR 7 Eyecatcher latest, pace angle suits
NEZEEH 7 Cork winner, forgiving last run
EMERALD HARMONY 6 Unlucky latest, likely improver
STURLASSON 6 One-paced at times, tactics key
MARY SHOELACES 6 Proven form, recent dip
VERIFIED 5 Unpredictable but could be laid out
ART OF UNITY 5 Respected turf/AW form, lacks punch now
CAVALIER APPROACH 5 Needs revival, unknown trainer intent
NAVAL ENSIGN 4 Maiden, modest so far
REINFORCE 4 Form tailed off, needs revival
BOBBI ROSA 4 Minor maiden win, regressive since
SHAWAAMEKH 3 Best days behind him



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4. Each-Way Angles (EW Place Terms Apply)

With 15 runners and a likely strong pace scenario, there’s scope for each-way plays:

NOUVEL ESPOIR – looks primed for a big run, with late pace and value angle.

EMERALD HARMONY – a touch of luck last time could’ve changed the result; drawn well.

VERIFIED – inconsistent but flagged by Timeform pace hint; may outrun big odds.



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5. Private Tissue Estimate (No Odds from TF Forecast Used)

Horse Tissue Price

MINT MAN 5/1
BOLD OPTIMIST 6/1
NOUVEL ESPOIR 13/2
BRIGADIER KAKURU 7/1
NEZEEH 8/1
EMERALD HARMONY 10/1
STURLASSON 12/1
VERIFIED 14/1
Others 16/1+


Market watch advised for:

Mint Man (back from 135 days)

Brigadier Kakuru (returning after 119 days)

Naval Ensign and Shawaamekh (both making second starts post-break)



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Summary

MINT MAN sets the form standard and has conditions in his favour if he’s fit off the break. BOLD OPTIMIST and NOUVEL ESPOIR are solid, pace-suited types with proven profiles, while NEZEEH and EMERALD HARMONY appeal as the value closers if the speed collapses. It’s a race where tactics and timing will be vital, and hold-up runners with a clean run-in could take full advantage.