Conditions:

Race Type: Group 2, 2-year-olds only

Distance: 6 furlongs (Straight)

Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)

Field Size: 21 runners

Pace Forecast: Extreme – Very strong early fractions likely

Draw Bias: High draws favoured historically in big-field 6f sprints at Ascot

Tactical Note: Prominent racers often benefit in Coventry, but with such a strong pace expected, closers drawn high may have the ideal setup. Horses like Tricky Tel and Postmodern could benefit, whereas the likes of Power Blue may be vulnerable late.



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1. Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders

Leading Contenders:

Military Code (TFR 106p) – Unbeaten in two starts and already a winner at Ascot. Displayed professionalism and resolution when battling at the finish. Trained by Charlie Appleby with William Buick up, this colt should be involved, though draw in stall 15 may need tracking.

Postmodern (TFR 102p) – Looked well above average when winning easily at Yarmouth. Travels strongly and is drawn in 19, which looks ideal. May have the most natural class in the field but lacks the proven experience of a few rivals.

Warsaw (TFR 100p) – Rapidly progressive type from the O’Brien yard, shaped with plenty of promise at Navan over 5f and bred to improve over 6f. Very quick turnaround (10 days), but that hasn’t stopped Ballydoyle before. Looks underestimated.


Main Dangers:

Gstaad (TFR 109p) – Half-brother to top-class sprinter Vandeek. Won on debut at Navan and is in the right hands. Still green and looked like he had more to offer. High draw in 14 is a bonus.

American Gulf (TFR 104p) – Bolted up at Windsor and has pace but draw in stall 8 could be a negative. If navigating across to the stands’ side group, could be a value player at longer odds.

Rock On Thunder (TFR 95p) – Strong pedigree and shaped as though better is to come. Still learning and drawn 10, he might need to be smuggled into it late.


Interesting Outsiders:

Andab (TFR 112p) – Smart pedigree, already placed in a Group 3, and trained by Joseph O’Brien. Could be underestimated. Drawn in 20 and will relish the strong pace.

Super Soldier (TFR 104) – Proven in pattern company (runner-up in France), and tends to race handy which may be a disadvantage here.

Tricky Tel (TFR 99p) – Game and straightforward with two Chester wins. Extreme pace could see him picked off late, but his attitude is a plus. Drawn 1, however, is a negative.

Bone Marra (TFR 88p) – Form is modest but he improved greatly second time out. Did trade higher in-running last time than SP. A lot more needed here.


Needs Cover / Likely Hold-Up Horses (May Need Luck):

Postmodern, Kolkata Knight, Raakeb, Power Blue – All likely closers, may benefit from pace but risk traffic in such a big field.

Tadej and Do Or Do Not shaped like in-running luck types and can finish late.



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2. Trainer Trends & Timeform Notes

Aidan O’Brien has won this race three times in the last ten years (including River Tiber in 2023). He saddles Warsaw and Gstaad – both strong claims.

Draw Analysis: High numbers (14–21) are favoured when pace collapses, which this setup may deliver.

Timeform Verdict: Warsaw is described as the “least fancied” of O’Brien’s pair, but his striking debut and top-class family demand serious respect.



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3. Ratings Out of 10 – Based on Suitability to Track, Ground, Form, and Profile

Horse Rating (/10) Comments

Military Code 9 Unbeaten, proven at track, professional.
Postmodern 8.5 Big potential, classy but lacks experience.
Warsaw 8.5 Rapid debut, ideal profile, fast turnaround concern.
Gstaad 8 Smart pedigree, high draw, should improve from debut.
Andab 8 Group form, drawn high, looks underestimated.
Rock On Thunder 7.5 Stylish win, but drawn mid.
American Gulf 7.5 Strong form but moderate draw may force early use.
Tricky Tel 6.5 Hard horse to pass, but poorly drawn in 1.
Super Soldier 6.5 Willing type, but could get softened up early.
Tadej 6 Battle-hardened, but vulnerable to classier types.
Power Blue 5.5 Well-bred but too exposed, likely to fade late.
Shaatir 5 Won modest race, needs more than gradual improvement.


> Caution: Be wary of debut winners like Warsaw and Gstaad who return quickly – monitor for confidence or drift in market.




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4. Each-Way Angles (21 runners)

This is an open Group 2 with value in the each-way market.

Andab – Group 3 placed, improving, drawn high.

Gstaad – Bred to be very good, right connections, drawn 14.

Warsaw – Strong finishing type who could be late on the scene.



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5. Private Tissue (Odds Estimate)

Horse Estimate

Military Code 9/2
Warsaw 6/1
Postmodern 6/1
Gstaad 7/1
Andab 10/1
American Gulf 12/1
Rock On Thunder 14/1
Tricky Tel 20/1
Super Soldier 25/1
Power Blue 28/1
Tadej 33/1



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6. Summary + Smart Play

A race brimming with promise and precocity. Military Code brings the strongest form and professionalism, but Warsaw may be the most naturally gifted colt in the race, if the quick turnaround isn’t a drawback. Postmodern could be a future Group 1 horse, but the field size is a challenge.


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Smart Play:
Back Warsaw and Military Code win-only for the win pool.
Each-way play on Gstaad and Andab with strong draw and profiles.
Avoid pace angles too close to the speed here – collapse is a genuine threat.