A staying test for the Classic generation. The ground is good to firm (good in places) and the pace is forecast to be very strong, which may compromise front-runners or one-paced stayers. No draw bias of note on the round course, though a well-balanced stayer with cover is typically favoured when the pace collapses.


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Leading Contenders

RAHIEBB [TFR 113p] – Trainer: Roger Varian | Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa
Shaped with promise on all four starts, improving with each run. A strong finisher who stays 12f well and is bred to relish 1¾m. Yard won this in 2022 with Eldar Eldarov. Each-way shape looks sound.

ASMARANI (IRE) [TFR 116p] – Francis-Henri Graffard (France) | Mickaël Barzalona
Progressive French colt with a strong staying pedigree (from the Azamour family). Caught the eye in the Prix Hocquart and will be well suited by the longer trip and pace scenario. Tactically versatile.

SHACKLETON (IRE) [TFR 109p] – Aidan O’Brien | Ryan Moore
Unlucky in the Gallinule last time. Prominent runner who may be forced to go forward again given pace make-up, but has form over 10f+ and shapes like he’ll stay further. O’Brien has won 5 of the last 10 renewals.

CARMERS (IRE) [TFR 112p] – Paddy Twomey | W.J. Lee
Back-to-back wins, including a Listed success last time. Promising type with tactical pace and stamina. Twomey is red-hot and the blinkers seemed to sharpen him up further. Still open to progress.


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Main Dangers & Notables

PINHOLE [TFR 108p] – Ralph Beckett | C.T. Keane
Shaped like a stayer at Chester despite signs of greenness. From the family of Quadrilateral and Thesis. Still learning but looks like a type Beckett excels with in staying tests.

SPINNING WHEEL [TFR 107p] – Simon & Ed Crisford | Harry Davies
Unbeaten in two this season, both minor events, but has made all and may not be best suited by the likely strong pace. Still, bred to improve with distance.

SCANDINAVIA (USA) [TFR 104p] – Aidan O’Brien | W.M. Lordan
Impressive maiden win at Navan on reappearance but that form has yet to be tested. Typical Ballydoyle improver but the late start to his 3yo campaign suggests he may need more seasoning.

DEVIL’S ADVOCATE [TFR 119] – John & Thady Gosden | William Buick
Ran a big race in the Dante with a good trip. Form of that race is solid, but he had a tactical edge that day. Could be overbet if punters latch onto the Dante line. Stamina still a query.


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Hold-up Risk / Market Watch

SPINNING WHEEL, RAHIEBB, and ASMARANI could be ideally positioned to benefit from the expected strong tempo.

SHACKLETON and TOO SOON may be on or near the lead and need to settle early to avoid becoming pace casualties.

Watch market signals for SCANDINAVIA and CARMERS, both lightly raced, progressive, and from trainers with a knack for targeting Royal Ascot.



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Runner Ratings (Track/Trip/Form/Pace Suitability – out of 10)

Horse Score (/10) Comments

RAHIEBB 8.5 Well-suited by step up, steadily progressive, late closer
ASMARANI 8.5 French form reads well, stamina assured, improving
SHACKLETON 8 Must settle off the strong pace, but has class
CARMERS 8 Improving, likes a battle, could take another step forward
PINHOLE 7.5 Learning on the job, stamina promising, wide open potential
SCANDINAVIA 7 Raw still, but obvious scope; short enough price for what he’s done
SPINNING WHEEL 6.5 Pace setup not ideal, may get swamped
DEVIL’S ADVOCATE 6.5 Will stay, but flattered by last run; needs to prove it wasn’t a one-off
FURTHUR 6 Better than Chester run, but this looks hot
TITANIUM EMPEROR 5.5 Unexposed, not yet up to this level on bare form
TOO SOON 5.5 Reappeared tamely, stamina an unknown
HALLELUJAH U 4.5 Much more needed, out of depth on ratings
AL WASL STORM 4 Derby run exposed his ceiling, profile suggests wrong side of the curve



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Profile Classifications

Proven: Shackleton, Devil’s Advocate

Progressive: Rahiebb, Carmers, Asmarani

Promising: Pinhole, Scandinavia, Spinning Wheel



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Private Tissue Estimate (based on Timeform ratings + profiles)

Rahiebb – 9/2

Asmarani – 5/1

Shackleton – 5/1

Carmers – 13/2

Pinhole – 8/1

Devil’s Advocate – 10/1

Scandinavia – 10/1

Spinning Wheel – 16/1

Furthur – 20/1

Titanium Emperor – 33/1

Too Soon – 33/1

Al Wasl Storm – 50/1

Hallelujah U – 66/1


Each-way play advised: Yes, 13 runners – solid value for those improving at a rate of knots.


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Summary

This year’s Queen’s Vase is shaping up as a deep and open renewal with several progressive, stamina-laden 3yos. The setup looks tailor-made for RAHIEBB, who’s shaped with increasing authority and should appreciate the 1¾m test under a patient ride. ASMARANI brings strong French form, while SHACKLETON has to be respected given the trainer’s record but mustn’t do too much too soon.


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Smart Play – Professional Punter View

“Look to back RAHIEBB and ASMARANI against the market leaders. Both are coming to the boil at the right time and suited by the race setup. A reverse forecast between the two could be worthwhile. If the ground remains quick and pace collapses, you want late closers with stamina and turn of foot – which both have. Avoid short-priced front-runners who might burn up in the early stages. Keep a close watch on market support for CARMERS – any sustained move would suggest connections fancy their chances.”