1. Race Conditions, Pace and Draw Angles

The Coronation Stakes is a Group 1 contest restricted to three-year-old fillies, run over Ascot’s round mile (7f 213y). The going is good to firm with some good patches on the round course. The field of 11 includes Group 1 winners and unexposed types stepping into pattern company.

The pace forecast is strong, with several runners known to race prominently (notably Duty First, Cathedral and Falakeyah). The likely scenario is a well-run race setting up for those able to settle and finish strongly from mid or rear. The draw has not historically shown a major bias on the round course, so tactical positioning and settling will be more important than stall number.


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2. Contenders, Dangers, and Timeform Profile Insights

ZARIGANA (Adjusted Rating: 127p)
Smart French filly who was awarded the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches last time after finishing second and being hampered. She had previously won the Prix de la Grotte and looks to have strong form claims with scope to improve again. A hold-up filly, she will need luck in running but should be well suited by the pace and stiff finish.
Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard (1st UK G1 runner in 2025)
Hold-up type – needs clear passage

FALAKEYAH (116p)
Unbeaten in two starts, including a Listed race at Newmarket where she made all and was unchallenged. Step up to Group 1 is a big ask, but she shapes like a filly of substance and could be dangerous if allowed to dictate. Strong pace likely to make that difficult.
Trainer: Owen Burrows
Promising profile – but will face pressure for lead

KON TIKI (121p)
Unbeaten in three starts, including a Listed win at York where she showed a sharp turn of foot. Supplemented for this, indicating confidence behind her. She travels well and finishes strongly, which should play well here.
Trainer: Jane Chapple-Hyam
Progressive and tactically versatile

EXACTLY (122)
Fourth in the French 1000 Guineas (Poule d’Essai), where she met some trouble in running. Proven in pattern class and has a turn of foot, though not as obviously progressive as a couple of others.
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien (twice a past winner – Winter 2017, Alpine Star 2020)
Track, trip, going all fine – may be slightly outfinished again

CHANTILLY LACE (117p)
Lightly raced – just two starts – and ran with credit to be fifth in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. Open to further improvement and trainer Ralph Beckett is in outstanding form.
Trainer: Ralph Beckett (trainer in form – 20% last 30 days)
Promising and unexposed – live each-way angle

FLIGHT (122)
Runner-up in the 1000 Guineas, but disappointing next time at the Curragh. Has ability but needs to settle better and be produced late, which may not be easy in this setup.
Trainer: Ollie Sangster
Proven – but vulnerable late if racing freely again

JANUARY (114)
Listed winner last season, eighth in the Irish 1000 Guineas on seasonal return. Not knocked about and likely to improve for the outing.
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Second string – possible improver, watch the market

SIMMERING (118)
Dual Group 2 winner as a juvenile but regressive this year, including well held in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Needs a bounce-back.
Trainer: Ollie Sangster
Exposed – unlikely to improve

DUTY FIRST (121)
Won the Fred Darling in good style but was well held in the 1000 Guineas and Irish equivalent. Enthusiastic front-runner who could over-race in this setup.
Trainer: Archie Watson
Outpaced late – setup not ideal

CATHEDRAL (113p)
Strong pedigree and shaped better than result at Lingfield on seasonal return. Still learning and open to improvement.
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Needs a step forward – not ruled out

CERCENE (115)
Third in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Running well, but likely up against better fillies here.
Trainer: Joseph G Murphy
Honest, but place at best


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3. Runner Ratings /10

Horse Score Justification

Zarigana 9.5 Proven G1 form, strong closer, pace favours
Kon Tiki 8.5 Improving fast, Listed form solid, setup suits
Falakeyah 8 Exciting potential, but setup doesn’t favour a front-runner
Exactly 7.5 Reliable, but lacking late zip at top level
Chantilly Lace 7.5 Big effort at Newmarket, trainer in form
Flight 7 Needs to settle, recent run a concern
January 6.5 Trainer suggests potential, ran green in return
Simmering 5.5 Looks to be on the downgrade
Duty First 5 Will be pressured early, stamina stretched late
Cathedral 5 Early days, might do better in calmer waters
Cercene 4.5 Decent run last time, but up against classier fillies



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4. Each-Way Angles (11 Runners)

Chantilly Lace – lightly raced, scopey, big run on just second start

Kon Tiki – unbeaten, closing strongly in Listed company, very likeable profile



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5. Private Tissue (No forecast prices used)

Horse Estimated Odds

Zarigana 9/4
Kon Tiki 4/1
Falakeyah 5/1
Exactly 7/1
Chantilly Lace 10/1
Flight 12/1
January 14/1
Simmering 25/1
Duty First 33/1
Cathedral 33/1
Cercene 50/1



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6. Summary and Smart Play

This looks like a proper Group 1 renewal, with strong international form via Zarigana, who brings Pouliches-winning credentials and looks to thrive under a strong pace. Her turn of foot and experience give her clear top billing. Kon Tiki is the most upwardly mobile British filly and comes here supplemented – a strong sign of intent. The setup should play to her strengths too.

Chantilly Lace is lightly raced and open to significant improvement on just her third start, while Falakeyah is a potential star but might find the race collapsing late against her front-running style.


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Smart Play – Professional Punter View:

Win Bet: Zarigana – best form on offer, tactically suited, and should improve again.

Each-Way Saver (if 3 places offered): Kon Tiki – unbeaten, great turn of foot, improving sharply.


Keep an eye on the market for January and Cathedral – both could drift or be nibbled at if expected to step forward from their comeback runs.