1m2f219y, £6,281, 4yo+, 0-80 | Polytrack (Standard/Slow)
Pace Forecast: Strong | Draw Bias: Neutral (track favours prominent racers over this trip)


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Contenders, Dangers, Outsiders & Profile Insights

DON SIMON (TFR 94) – Reliable all-weather form including narrow defeat at Chelmsford (14f) and Newcastle. Racing prominently suits Kempton. Only below-par effort came on turf at York. Profile suggests he’s proven rather than progressive, though still open to a small amount of improvement.

XIOMARA (TFR 94) – Showed clear promise at Windsor (6th of 12) on stable debut for de Foy. Races prominently, which fits with track bias, and is unexposed on AW. Yet to prove she’s truly progressive but looks promising. Noted in Timeform analysis as likely to come forward.

FEDERATED (TFR 93) – Two Kempton wins already this year. Last effort excused (trapped wide at Newcastle). Has a proven polytrack record, travels well in the run. Lightly raced for his age, a slight concern with hold-up tactics if stuck too far back.

UMBRIA (TFR 95) – Course and distance winner; close third here in May in stronger form line. Slight regression last time but remains a proven track performer. Front-runner, so the strong pace may not help her, but claims are credible on previous Kempton run.

WONDER (TFR 93) – A solid stayer at this level, with Southwell win in March. Below form the last twice and may have been overfaced at 2m. Drop in trip helps but not progressive. Typically races prominently.

TROJAN STORM (TFR 91) – Eye-catching effort last time at Kempton, shaped as if the run would bring him on. Course form and staying credentials appeal. Watch for market moves; potentially interesting outsider.

FORCA TIMAO (TFR 91) – Won by 5½ lengths at Southwell in April but pulled too hard latest. Second run after a break. Hood and tongue tie back on. Tactics uncertain but not dismissed. Another with outsider potential if settling better.

CRYSTAL MARINER (TFR 91) – Best run came after wind op in April (2nd at Chelmsford). Underwhelmed since. Hold-up style can find trouble on this track with no draw edge. Might be one-paced. Needs a strong pace collapse.

OUTGUN (TFR 92) – Patchy form but interesting with Hollie Doyle booked and trainer Alan King in form. Not always straightforward and needs things to fall right. Has a Kempton win in his record.

SANITISER (TFR 90) – Dual-purpose type with winning hurdles form over the winter. AW run last autumn poor and 181 days off raises fitness questions. Market check vital.

LILLY LUX (TFR 92) – French import, shaped as if amiss on stable/AW debut in May. That was after a three-month break. Trainer George Baker out of form. Only second UK run – market could guide.

ZOFFANDIA (TFR 92?) – Inconsistent but Kempton winner earlier this year. Possibly quirky (hung left at Pontefract) and needs to settle better. Could pop up again but hard to trust.

KINGKEER (TFR 91) – Won at Windsor in May, then flopped 14 days later. Probably found that race came too soon. Effective at this trip and could be better than bare form.

TIPSY TIGER (TFR 93) – Won at Sandown last season. Off 7 months before Chelmsford reappearance and pulled hard over a longer trip. Drop in trip helps but long absence before latest is a red flag.

Trainer Notes:

James Fanshawe has won this race 4 times in last 10 years (saddles WONDER).

Ed Dunlop, Kevin de Foy, and Ed Walker have excellent polytrack stats.

Trojan Storm (Ian Williams), Outgun (Alan King), and Lilly Lux (George Baker) all represent trainers with some ability to ready one at a price.

Second starts post-break: Watch market closely for SANITISER, LILLY LUX, TIPSY TIGER.



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Ratings Out of 10 (Suitability to track, trip, going, profile)

Horse Score/10

Don Simon 8
Xiomara 8.5
Federated 7.5
Umbria 7
Wonder 7
Trojan Storm 7.5
Forca Timao 6.5
Crystal Mariner 6
Outgun 6.5
Sanitiser 5.5
Lilly Lux 5.5
Zoffandia 6
Kingkeer 6.5
Tipsy Tiger 6



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Private Tissue Estimate

Xiomara – 4/1

Don Simon – 9/2

Federated – 6/1

Umbria – 7/1

Wonder – 8/1

Trojan Storm – 10/1

Forca Timao – 12/1

Crystal Mariner – 14/1

Outgun – 16/1

Kingkeer – 16/1

Tipsy Tiger – 20/1

Sanitiser – 25/1

Zoffandia – 28/1

Lilly Lux – 33/1



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Summary

A competitive Class 4 with several exposed performers and a few low-mileage improvers. Xiomara catches the eye most: a positive Windsor run, well drawn for a front-runner, and expected to improve second time for a progressive yard. Don Simon is very solid and proven over course and surface, while Trojan Storm’s last effort offered encouragement on reappearance.


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Smart Play

Win: XIOMARA – well-treated unexposed filly, tactically suited and improving
Each-way (if 8+ runners): TROJAN STORM – ran well off a break, could be peaking now with suitable setup