Standard going | Tapeta | Draw Bias: Against low draws | Pace Forecast: Even

This Class 2 handicap on Newcastle’s Tapeta track has drawn a competitive field of 11 runners. The course’s configuration places some emphasis on a clean tactical run and finishing strength, with historical data showing a draw bias against low numbers at this trip. With an even pace forecast, mid-division and hold-up types should get a fair chance, though prominent runners from low draws could be at a tactical disadvantage.

Leading Contenders

Ashariba (Draw 2, 109p) – A progressive four-year-old filly, lightly raced and shaped encouragingly on her return from 8 months off at Epsom when poorly positioned and short of room. She’s proven on polytrack and has scope to improve further on Tapeta debut. Often slowly away, she is one of the more promising types in this field, but could need luck in running from a low draw.

Wadacre Gomez (Draw 10, 111) – Reliable performer on the all-weather, and his latest second at Chelmsford behind an unexposed winner gives the form a solid look. Stronger positionally than most, handles Tapeta well, and represents a stable in good form. A consistent sort who often hits the frame.

Romieu (Draw 8, 111) – French import who won impressively on UK debut and posted an upgraded fifth at York subsequently. Latest effort may have come too soon. Now returning after 31 days with potential for more, and could be underestimated. Distance looks ideal; market support would be notable.

Penzance (Draw 1, 113) – Front-runner from a draw that has historically underperformed at this trip. Form has dipped slightly since March win, and tactical setup here may not suit. Better suited to small fields or tracks where he can control the tempo.

Fantasy Believer (Draw 9, 112) – Capable at this level and suited to all-weather but returns from 160 days off. Typically held up, which adds a luck-in-running risk, especially with the draw and even pace. One to monitor in the market.

Other Notables & Outsiders

Hosanna Power (Draw 5, 111) – Previously trained by Sir Michael Stoute, shaped with promise at Newcastle two starts ago. Forgive last effort; a minor place chance if bouncing back, especially back on Tapeta.

Royal Approval (Draw 4, 109) – Newcastle winner in February but inconsistent since. Can act on Tapeta but needs to bounce back. Tactically neutral but has ground to make up on recent figures.

Storm Catcher (Draw 3, 110) – Best form is behind him. Not shown much in two runs this year and shaped as if amiss last time. Unconvincing despite course win last year.

Postileo (Draw 6, ?) – Second start for a new yard and well beaten after long layoff. Topweight and best form over much longer distances. Difficult to recommend.

Borgi (Draw 11, 108) – Usually held up, returns from a quiet comeback at Pontefract. Previous Newcastle winner but drawn wide again and inconsistent.

Sea Legend (Draw 7, 108) – Well-handicapped but form regressing and has changed hands multiple times this year. Market support could be revealing.

Timeform Insights & Trainer Trends

Ashariba flagged as still “capable of better” by Timeform, with a progressive profile.

Fantasy Believer: flagged as “hold-up” and at risk of poor positioning, particularly on this layout.

Trainer Watch: No repeat winners of this race in recent years. Charlie Johnston (Wadacre Gomez) and Andrew Balding (Royal Approval) arrive with runners from in-form yards.

Smart Stats: Menuisier has a profitable record with favourites, lending weight to Ashariba’s claims.



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Suitability Scores (Track, Trip, Surface, Form, Setup):

(out of 10)

Ashariba – 8.5

Wadacre Gomez – 8

Romieu – 7.5

Penzance – 6.5

Fantasy Believer – 6

Hosanna Power – 6

Royal Approval – 5.5

Sea Legend – 5

Borgi – 5

Storm Catcher – 4

Postileo – 3



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Private Tissue Estimate

Ashariba – 3/1

Wadacre Gomez – 9/2

Romieu – 6/1

Penzance – 8/1

Fantasy Believer – 10/1

Hosanna Power – 10/1

Royal Approval – 14/1

Sea Legend – 16/1

Borgi – 20/1

Storm Catcher – 25/1

Postileo – 40/1



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Summary

This is a trappy Class 2 contest where position and draw could be decisive. Ashariba has the most progressive profile and shaped with plenty of promise on return. Wadacre Gomez is solid and tactically suited, while Romieu has untapped upside and is the value play if he returns fresh. Penzance and Fantasy Believer have class but need things to fall their way.

Smart Play

Win Bet: Ashariba – Still on the upgrade, likely fitter for comeback, suited to conditions if breaking on terms.
Each-Way Saver (11 runners): Romieu – Unexposed, bred for the trip, and better than last run suggests.