Pace Forecast: Strong | Draw Bias: Against Low
Prominent racers generally have an advantage at this trip on Newmarket’s July course. Despite a predicted strong gallop, early pace and position remain crucial, especially given the disadvantage for those drawn low.


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Leading Contenders

Amberia (Adjusted Rating: 101p)
Made a dominant impression when making all at Leicester (7f, good to firm), scoring by six lengths. That performance hinted at above-average ability, and the drop back to 6f is unlikely to inconvenience given her cruising speed. Her running style is ideal for this set-up, though draw in stall 4 is on the cusp of the unfavourable zone. Holds a “p” Timeform symbol, indicating significant improvement to come. Trainer David Loughnane is in good form with juveniles.

Anthelia (99)
Unbeaten in three starts, including a Listed success at Sandown where she showed determination and class. A half-sister to 6f winners and bred to progress, she was value for more than the winning margin. She’s tactically versatile but does tend to come from off the pace and may need gaps to open; therefore, she’s a slight luck-in-running candidate in a strong-pace context. Solid form line, especially with her Sandown win franked by rivals.

Bella Lyra (96p)
Confirmed her promising debut by bolting up at Windsor over 6f, pulling clear in taking style. Bred to improve and represents a yard with top 2yo form. Ryan Moore is a significant booking and she has a favourable draw in 7, suited to her prominent racing style. Should continue progressing.


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Main Dangers

Midnight Tango (90p)
Won at Hamilton in modest style but took time to assert. Form needs a boost, though she’s entitled to improve again and showed professionalism in that win. Stall 5 is fine, and her style suggests she could sit mid-division. Second start at 6f may bring more.

Argentine Tango (99)
Has done little wrong in northern races and was gutsy in wins at Pontefract and Beverley. However, she was workmanlike last time and may find a few of these have greater gears at this level. Likely to sit just off the lead.

Meelaf (98)
Ran well when fourth in a French Group 3 and has shown consistent effort since breaking her maiden at Musselburgh. Draw is manageable but she doesn’t have the late kick of some. Form reliable but slightly exposed.


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Outsiders of Note

Game Striker (86p)
Improved to win at Goodwood but lacks the standout performance of the top trio. Would need to improve again; however, she has a useful draw and should be monitored in the market.

Miss Piggle (87)
Modest fourth at Carlisle in similar company last time, and while she won on the AW in April, she appears to be facing stronger opposition here.

Awraad (78)
Has regressed since an early win and was well held at York in a Listed race. Others appear to have more potential.


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Trends and Timeform Comments

Timeform Notes: “Amberia finished clear of her rivals at Leicester and is open to improvement. Bella Lyra and Anthelia are feared most.”

Trainers to Note: Rod Millman (Anthelia) has a solid record at this level. Richard Hughes (Bella Lyra) often targets these juvenile fillies’ races and Moore’s booking is significant.

Second Start Watch: Bella Lyra and Game Striker are both running after only one win—improvement likely, market moves should be respected.

Returnees: No horse is returning from a layoff over 90 days, so fitness not a major concern.



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Ratings out of 10 (Track, Trip, Form, Progression Combined)

Amberia – 9

Anthelia – 9

Bella Lyra – 8.5

Midnight Tango – 7

Argentine Tango – 6.5

Meelaf – 6.5

Game Striker – 6

Miss Piggle – 5

Awraad – 4.5



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Private Tissue Estimate

Amberia – 7/2

Anthelia – 4/1

Bella Lyra – 9/2

Midnight Tango – 8/1

Game Striker – 10/1

Argentine Tango – 10/1

Meelaf – 12/1

Miss Piggle – 33/1

Awraad – 50/1



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Summary

This is a high-quality Listed race with several promising fillies. Amberia’s Leicester win stood out on both form and style; she sets the standard on adjusted ratings and suits the likely race shape. Anthelia brings unbeaten credentials and is rock-solid, while Bella Lyra has major upside from a good yard with a top jockey.


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Smart Play

Win Bet: Amberia – Clear on ratings, front-runner suited by conditions.
Each-Way Saver (9 runners): Bella Lyra – Impressive at Windsor, more to come, drawn well.

Watch the market carefully for any late strength behind the lightly raced fillies.