A Group 3 contest over the July Course’s 7f trip, this year’s Criterion Stakes features a strong field of 8 runners with a pace forecast suggesting a strong gallop. Lethal Levi and Quinault are expected to press on, which should create a fair set-up for those ridden with restraint. The draw is unlikely to produce a significant bias here, though stall 1 (Formal) may be slightly disadvantaged if racing develops away from the rail.

Leading Contenders

Lake Forest (TFR 124): The clear form horse, having placed in top-class sprints and staying on strongly when fifth in the Group 1 Queen Anne last time. Handles quick ground well, and this drop back to Group 3 level is a class edge. Needs a pace to run at but is proven in fields of this nature. Trainer William Haggas has not won this race in recent years, but Tom Marquand (36% on favourites) is a plus. Suited by track, distance, and going.

Paborus (TFR 122p): The most progressive runner in the line-up. Unbeaten in four starts since his debut season and marked himself as a pattern-class horse when storming away with a Thirsk minor event on return. “Horse in Focus” and the ‘p’ symbol suggests more to come. Track and ground should be no issue. Trainer Edward Bethell is emerging at this level; market support would reinforce his credentials.

Formal (TFR 115p): The 3yo filly gets weight all round and looked a Listed-class filly at least when bouncing back with a dominant Epsom win. Still unexposed and likely to come forward again. Drawn lowest and needs pace to hold up; ground no issue. Only blip came in a big-field Newbury handicap, excusable. Yard in form.

Main Dangers

Room Service (TFR 120): Strong finisher who shaped better than the result in the John of Gaunt Stakes. A hold-up type who could benefit from the likely strong gallop. May need luck in running given run style, but is on the upgrade and suited by the 7f trip.

Lethal Levi (TFR 123): Reliable type in top handicaps and Group 3s; front-running style may put him in the thick of it. Strong recent form in the Greenlands Stakes. Fully exposed but effective on quick ground and likely to give his running.

Outsiders of Note

Prague (TFR 122): Has some serious back-class and may come on for his seasonal reappearance after 252 days off. Strong type with solid form over further but not sure to be suited by the drop to 7f at this level.

Nostrum (TFR 120§): Lightly raced last season and folded tamely on last start. Previously second in this race but now with a new yard and off 281 days. Had a breathing op and sold in the interim; very much a watching brief.

Quinault (TFR 120): Solid in 2024 in listed company but recent Meydan and Haydock efforts were poor. Stamina likely stretched at this trip at Group 3 level. One of the expected pace angles.

Ratings out of 10 (Based on track/trip/ground/form/setup)

Lake Forest – 9.5/10 (Proven, best form, ideal setup)

Paborus – 9/10 (Promising, progressive, strong connections)

Formal – 8.5/10 (Promising, receives weight, improving)

Room Service – 7.5/10 (Upgraded last run, but needs luck)

Lethal Levi – 7/10 (Proven but exposed, good attitude)

Prague – 6.5/10 (Good horse but trip likely short of best)

Nostrum – 5/10 (Regressive, layoff, watching brief)

Quinault – 5/10 (Best over shorter, suspect at this trip)


Trends & Notes

Hold-up types (Lake Forest, Room Service) need gaps to open with the forecast strong pace.

Watch the market on Paborus (second run back) and Prague/Nostrum (long layoffs).

Timeform flags: Paborus (Horse in Focus), suggesting potential for another step up.

No trainer has won this race more than once recently.


Private Tissue Estimate

Lake Forest – 5/2

Paborus – 3/1

Formal – 4/1

Room Service – 8/1

Lethal Levi – 10/1

Prague – 14/1

Nostrum – 33/1

Quinault – 40/1


Summary

This looks a fine opportunity for Lake Forest to return to winning ways in a Group 3 setting after acquitting himself well in a Group 1. Paborus is the big improver, and it wouldn’t surprise to see him go very close if handling the rise in grade. Formal, getting a weight allowance, adds a touch of intrigue and looks well worth her place. Room Service may sneak a place if the gaps appear late.

Smart Play

Win – Lake Forest (proven class, right setup)
Each-Way Saver – Paborus (progressive and unexposed with weight-for-age potential)