Surface: Turf | Going: Good, good to yielding in places | Draw Bias: Neutral | Pace Forecast: Strong

Race Setup & Tactical Picture:
The presence of several habitual forward-goers points to a strong pace, likely suiting proven stayers and those capable of closing from off the pace with a clear run. The draw appears neutral, with no distinct bias evident in recent runnings or course data. Notably, the early hold-up types such as Barrogstown Girl and Cinnamon Coco may need luck in running, particularly if dropped in at the rear in a big field.


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Key Contenders

CINAMMON COCO (91p) – Lightly raced and progressive; shaped very well on handicap debut at Roscommon when conceding first run, finishing second to another improver. Now fitted with cheekpieces and appears ideally suited by the forecast strong gallop and step back up to 12f. Rates a promising and progressive type for Joseph O’Brien.

JR MAHON (90) – Consistent profile, recently collared late in a strongly-run Limerick handicap over slightly shorter. Remains with upside as a 3-y-o and brings strong form lines into the race. Another likely to be ridden patiently, though looks to respond well to cheekpieces.

BARROGSTOWN GIRL (89) – Reliable and in-form mare; was second last time at Limerick despite getting loose pre-race. Three-time winner in 2024, including at the Curragh. Can travel well but often held up and can need gaps to appear late. Vulnerable if things don’t fall right but clearly capable.

PARTY DRESS (84) – Winner last time at Limerick under positive tactics; that was over 17f, so the drop in trip with pace on could be manageable. Form is solid but more exposed than others and could find younger improvers too strong late on.

FORTUNA VERA (88) – Joseph O’Brien’s second runner; well-bred and useful, though her form over shorter trips raises a slight stamina query here. Handles decent ground well, and represents connections in fine form. Tactical setup might not suit unless held up longer.


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Interesting Outsiders & Notes

SURREY FORCE (88) – Not seen since last October; now with a new yard. Placed several times over further in England and has proven stamina and soft-ground form. Potentially well-handicapped if ready, though fitness must be taken on trust. Market check essential given the 263-day absence.

FOLLY BEACH (88) – More exposed but shaped well at Navan on return from a break. Best efforts come with a strong gallop, and conditions may suit here. Has place potential if avoiding early bustle.

CHUTZPAL (85) – Needed the run on reappearance, still held on well at the Curragh. Capable when on song and has placed form in deeper company over staying trips. Could be an each-way angle at a price.


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Timeform Comments & Trainer Notes

CINAMMON COCO carries a Timeform “Horse in Focus” flag, indicating confidence in his upward trajectory.

A.J. Martin, trainer of Bruant, has a healthy profit when sending sole runners to flat meetings. Bruant does return quickly from a Downpatrick hurdles win, though stamina on the flat is untested beyond 10.5f.

Watch Surrey Force and Daboya for significant market movement, both returning from long layoffs.

Sunny Dude and Matt Connor are regressive or low-level handicappers; little appeal in this field.



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Suitability Ratings (Track/Trip/Going + Current Profile)

Horse Rating (/10) Comments

Cinnamon Coco 9 Proven stamina, progressive, big run likely
Jr Mahon 8 Consistent and low-mileage, race should suit
Barrogstown Girl 7 Strong late kick but needs luck in running
Fortuna Vera 7 Stamina query under strong pace
Party Dress 6 Recent win fair, but drop in trip a worry
Chutzpal 6 Fit now, has placed potential
Folly Beach 6 Ground suits, shape of race could favour
Surrey Force 6 Fit if ready, good past form in Britain
Crassus 5 Older now, not the force of old
Pachmena 5 Out of sorts but previous Curragh winner
Not Just Any Eagle 5 Needs everything to go right
Bruant 4 Unconvincing turf credentials
Pillar of Hope 4 Not shown much recently
Daboya 3 Best watched off long absence
Matt Connor 2 Out of form, hard to recommend
Sunny Dude 1 Modest performer, up against it



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Private Tissue Estimate (Selected Runners)

Cinnamon Coco – 9/2

Jr Mahon – 6/1

Barrogstown Girl – 13/2

Fortuna Vera – 8/1

Party Dress – 10/1

Chutzpal – 16/1

Surrey Force – 16/1

Folly Beach – 18/1

Others – 20/1+



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Summary

This has the look of a well-contested handicap likely to favour improving, well-treated types that can cope with a strongly-run 12f. Cinnamon Coco stands out on progression, conditions, and profile, while Jr Mahon looks a logical danger with race fitness and form. Barrogstown Girl has strong credentials but will need a clear run to maximise her chance. Chutzpal and Surrey Force appeal as potential each-way value plays.


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Smart Play

Win Bet: Cinnamon Coco – unexposed, upwardly mobile and shaped like a winner-in-waiting last time.
Each-Way Saver: Chutzpal – likely to be fitter now, strong closer with proven stamina at a big price.