Pace & Draw Angles: A very weak pace forecast suggests a likely tactical race with limited early speed. With no front-runner declared aside from PARAGON (IRE), he is expected to get an uncontested lead – a strong tactical advantage, especially at Brighton where the pronounced camber and sharp turns favour front-runners. There is no draw bias declared, though Brighton’s ridged track and undulating layout can be tricky for inexperienced hold-up types.


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Leading Contenders:

TIEMPO ALEGRE (TFR 73)
Progressive in form and posted a solid third at Redcar despite being denied a clear run. Dropped 2 lb and has strong adjusted ratings for this class. She stays the trip well and Jim Crowley is a notable booking for Jack Jones, a trainer enjoying a quietly good season. However, she is a patient ride and in a race with no pace, may be hostage to fortune unless Crowley sits closer than usual.

WARM GLOW (TFR 72)
Consistent and lightly raced filly, last seen shaping well at Bath when third. She’s tactically versatile and well-related, with stamina assured. She has strong sectionals from Brighton two starts ago, indicating she handles the track. Back with a 7 lb claimer Fred Daly, who has built a good rapport, though she has to prove she can win off the bridle.

PARAGON (IRE) (TFR 71§)
Has the top pace projection and could be a big player from the front. However, his profile is that of a bridle horse—he trades shorter in-running than his final finishing positions suggest. Despite a run of consistent efforts, he’s repeatedly found little off the bridle, including last time at Wolverhampton when allowed a soft lead. Still, he’s the most tactically suited in this setup.


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Others:

THE KAMIKAZE KING (TFR 66)
Returning from 113 days off. Modest maiden but shaped better than the result at Newcastle in March when poorly positioned. Lightly raced and not without hope from a low mark (OR 46). However, fitness is a concern off the layoff and trainer Dylan Cunha is without a win in this race previously.

LUNANOVA (TFR 68)
Another hold-up filly in a race that likely won’t suit that style. Brighton run last time showed minor promise, and she is well drawn. However, she’s still a maiden and seems to be settling into low-grade company. Needs pace to collapse.

ROTATION (TFR 61)
Hard to recommend. Out of form and no recent efforts hint at resurgence. Best efforts came over shorter and in sellers. Likely to be outpaced early and lacks closing speed. Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton yet to win this race and 7 lb claimer booked.


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Ratings & Suitability Score (Out of 10):

Horse Track/Trip/Going Adjusted Rating Score (/10)

Tiempo Alegre Yes/Yes/Yes 73 8
Warm Glow Yes/Yes/Yes 72 7.5
Paragon (IRE) Yes/Yes/Yes 71 7
Lunanova Yes/Yes/Yes 68 6
The Kamikaze King Yes?/Yes/Yes 66 5.5
Rotation No/Maybe/Yes 61 4



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Trends & Notes:

No previous winners from today’s trainers in this exact contest.

Tiempo Alegre wears a hood and has sometimes been slowly away—running style may not be optimal here.

Warm Glow looks the most progressive, Tiempo Alegre the most consistent, Paragon the most tactically suited.



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Private Tissue Estimate (100% Book):

Tiempo Alegre – 9/4

Warm Glow – 3/1

Paragon (IRE) – 10/3

Lunanova – 10/1

The Kamikaze King – 12/1

Rotation – 16/1



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Summary:

A slowly run affair on a sharp track is likely to favour those close to the pace, putting PARAGON (IRE) in a strong tactical position, though his weak finish remains a red flag. TIEMPO ALEGRE looks solid despite pace concerns and could be the one to beat if she finds a gap. WARM GLOW is knocking on the door and may be more adaptable than the others.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet – TIEMPO ALEGRE
Saver – PARAGON (IRE) (if allowed easy lead)

Keep an eye on the market, especially for The Kamikaze King, who returns from a break and could be a springer.