Pace Forecast: Weak
Pace Angle: Prominent racers tend to be favoured here. With a weak early gallop likely, it could suit City of Ruins if able to dictate. Al Mootamarid may find the pace against him if held up again.
Draw Angle (Flat/AW): Not applicable over jumps.


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Main Contenders and Tactical Profiles

1. AL MOOTAMARID (IRE) – TFR: 104 (Horse In Focus)
Profile: Progressive 4yo, off the mark in good style at Stratford (tongue-tied first time), and a fair 6 lb rise keeps him in this. Unexposed, proven over trip and surface.
Tactical fit: Typically races just off the pace, but will need luck in a muddling race.
Trainer: Dominic Elsworth got his first winner with this horse.
Risk: Hold-up type in a weak pace setup.
Verdict: Progressive
Rating: 8/10

2. SCINTILLANTE – TFR: 103
Profile: Reliable and fit. C&D winner in May and runner-up last time behind a well-treated winner. Slight concern over stamina stretching beyond 2m.
Tactical fit: Travels prominently, well suited to race tempo.
Verdict: Proven
Rating: 7.5/10

3. PLAY PRETEND (IRE) – TFR: 101
Profile: Juvenile winner last season, shaped well on return from 6 months off at Southwell (third), likely to come on for that. Well-handicapped if improving again.
Tactical fit: Usually held up; may need a stronger pace.
Trainer Angle: Dave Roberts has a +£16 level stakes profit when running only one on the card.
Verdict: Promising
Rating: 7/10

4. CHOIRMASTER – TFR: 102+
Profile: Lightly raced over hurdles, hinted at retaining ability on reappearance after 21 months off. May strip much fitter now and is well-handicapped on old form.
Tactical fit: Typically mid-division. May lack tactical edge in slow-run affair.
Verdict: Interesting outsider if bouncing back.
Rating: 6.5/10

5. CITY OF RUINS – TFR: 101
Profile: Once promising but form tailed off sharply after switch from Donald McCain. Typically races close-up and is tactically suited, but needs major revival.
Tactical fit: Prominent racer, may get a soft lead.
Verdict: Needs to prove fitness and attitude.
Rating: 5.5/10

6. SIXTY PLUS (IRE) – TFR: ?
Profile: Has shown little under rules but was heavily backed last time when bombing out. Now with a hot yard (James Owen), who has strong summer stats.
Tactical fit: Unknown running style, but if settling better, could improve.
Watch: Second run in handicap – market important.
Verdict: Promising but risky
Rating: 6.5/10

7. ASCENSION DAY (IRE) – TFR: ?
Profile: Consistent type at lower levels, but poor recent chase form and pulled up last time. Returns to hurdles, cheekpieces/tongue-tie combo retained.
Tactical fit: Front-running type but fitness/attitude now questionable.
Verdict: Regressive
Rating: 5/10

8. LEOPOLDS ROCK (IRE) – TFR: ?
Profile: Well handicapped on old form, but only one run since 2023. May have needed the run at Perth but hard to trust off long break.
Tactical fit: Capable of racing handily but has no current form.
Verdict: Proven but cold
Rating: 4.5/10

9. CAWTHORNE BANKER (IRE) – TFR: ?
Profile: Form has tailed off, including last two runs at Worcester. More miss than hit recently.
Tactical fit: Usually races forward but doesn’t finish off.
Verdict: Out of form
Rating: 4/10

10. SWEET SERENE – TFR: –
Profile: No form over hurdles, detached and tailed off repeatedly.
Verdict: Outclassed
Rating: 2/10


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Significant Trainer/Jockey/Trend Notes

Dominic Elsworth had his first winner with Al Mootamarid, suggesting a line in the sand moment for his small team.

James Owen is 23% with hurdlers over ≤2m and 22% in the summer—Sixty Plus is with the right man.

Market advice: Watch for late support or drifts, especially for second-time handicappers like Sixty Plus and layoff types like Choirmaster and City of Ruins.



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Profile Classifications

Proven: Scintillante, Choirmaster (old form), Ascension Day (on a big downgrade)

Progressive: Al Mootamarid

Promising: Play Pretend, Sixty Plus



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Private Tissue Estimate

1. Al Mootamarid – 11/4


2. Scintillante – 3/1


3. Play Pretend – 13/2


4. Choirmaster – 7/1


5. Sixty Plus – 8/1


6. City of Ruins – 14/1


7. Ascension Day – 16/1


8. Leopolds Rock – 20/1


9. Cawthorne Banker – 33/1


10. Sweet Serene – 100/1




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Summary & Smart Play

This is a weak 0–100 handicap where unexposed or progressive types have an edge. Al Mootamarid is a last-time-out winner from a small yard and is feasibly treated to go in again under similar conditions, albeit with some tactical concerns in a likely dawdle. Scintillante is rock-solid and well positioned if he gets a tow into the race. The lightly raced Play Pretend could take a big step forward, especially as he was entitled to need the run at Southwell and represents a yard with profitable one-off runners.

Smart Play:

Win: Al Mootamarid – strong form, improving profile, well-placed again.

Each-Way Saver: Play Pretend – unexposed, shapes like more to come, market strength significant.


Keep an eye on the betting for Sixty Plus – if support arrives again, he may be worth a saver or inclusion in exotics.