Pace Angle: The pace is forecast to be even. Prominent racers are generally favoured at this venue. The specific pace hint highlights MACS DILEMMA as suited to the pace set-up, while the hold-up runner SOME NIGHTMARE may struggle.
Draw Angle: No significant draw bias has been noted in recent data over this trip at Chepstow.


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Leading Contenders & Race Dynamics

LEVEL UP (TFR 74) is thriving, landing two of his last three including a game win under a penalty just days ago. A well-made gelding who goes well at Chepstow, he races prominently, which is an advantage here. He’s clearly in form and is proven at the trip, ground, and track. He’s up 5 lb but is still the one to beat.

SAVANNAH SMILES (TFR 73) has been running well in defeat and her consistent Chepstow form is notable. She races up with the pace and nearly got the job done at Bath last time, only headed late. She’s holding form well and looks the main threat.

FEAR AND FAST (TFR 72) is a three-year-old with upside. He ran a clear second at Yarmouth last time behind a sharp winner. He’s often keen but has pace, and with a trainer in form, he’s respected.

MOLLYMOOK (TFR 72) ran well at Yarmouth on her handicap debut. She showed speed and was only headed late. From a low draw, she could get involved if building on that effort.

OUTER EDGE (TFR 71) showed ability earlier in the spring on the AW and wasn’t disgraced last time. This sharper 5f may stretch him slightly, but he’s not dismissed entirely.

SOME NIGHTMARE (TFR 72) is well-handicapped on best form and a multiple Chepstow winner. He’s not in peak form and is a confirmed hold-up performer, which makes things harder in a race likely to favour prominent racers.

MACS DILEMMA (TFR 71) is another who races forward, but recent form is patchy and he’s been tried over further. He could go well for a long way but is vulnerable late on.

BEAUTIFUL THINGS is a long-priced three-year-old with some back form as a juvenile but has shown very little this season and looks opposable.

Trainer Watch:

David Evans (LEVEL UP) has shown strong stats with single runners at meetings.

John O’Shea has two runners but both have slight questions to answer.

Ismail Mohammed (FEAR AND FAST) is in form and dangerous with lightly raced types.



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Runner Ratings out of 10 (Suitability to track, trip, going & setup)

LEVEL UP – 9/10 (Proven, in form, suited setup)

SAVANNAH SMILES – 8/10 (Consistent, well handicapped)

FEAR AND FAST – 7/10 (Unexposed, progressive profile)

MOLLYMOOK – 7/10 (Scope to improve from low draw)

SOME NIGHTMARE – 6/10 (Proven but set-up against)

MACS DILEMMA – 6/10 (Back in trip, front-runner angle helps)

OUTER EDGE – 6/10 (Not fully convincing at 5f)

BEAUTIFUL THINGS – 3/10 (Out of form, risky)


Race Trends & Insights:

Course winners and prominent racers are generally favoured at Chepstow over 5f.

In-form horses returning within a week can often hold their form in summer sprint handicaps, as with LEVEL UP.

Keep an eye on Mollymook and Fear And Fast as possible improvers after limited starts in handicaps.



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Private Tissue Estimate (Value-based forecast)

LEVEL UP – 5/2

SAVANNAH SMILES – 7/2

FEAR AND FAST – 9/2

MOLLYMOOK – 6/1

OUTER EDGE – 10/1

SOME NIGHTMARE – 12/1

MACS DILEMMA – 14/1

BEAUTIFUL THINGS – 33/1



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Summary & Smart Play

LEVEL UP has been revitalised with a breathing operation and is racing in career-best form. Proven at this C&D and racing with the pace, he’s the one they all have to beat under a penalty.

SAVANNAH SMILES continues to run well and is a solid each-way option in a field of eight. She holds her form, has course form, and will be suited by the ground.

Smart Play:
Win Bet – LEVEL UP
Each-Way Saver – SAVANNAH SMILES (if 8 remain)

This looks like a race where proven current form and racing style are key.