Pace Forecast: Very Strong
Draw Bias: Strongly favours high numbers
Surface Profile: Flat turf – Thirsk’s straight sprint course often rewards high numbers in big fields and those held up off a fierce early gallop.


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Contenders & Angles

Strongest Contenders
CALAFRIO (9/10) – Has run solid figures this season and was notably short of room last time at Wetherby behind Lady of The Garr. Returns to a track she likes, is well drawn in stall 6 with Oisin Murphy booked. The strong pace and flat galloping track should suit. Trainer out of form but still a solid contender.

LADY OF THE GARR (8/10) – Consistent and often underrated in the market. Beat several of these at Wetherby and showed a willing attitude. However, she’s often slowly away which could be a problem in a big field and fast pace. Has high draw in stall 3, which is a negative today.

GIS A SUB (8/10) – Has been catching the eye with late runs and is suited by a pace collapse. Well drawn in stall 14 and one of the biggest benefactors from the predicted burn-up. Trainer Paul Midgley is adept with sprinters and he’s not without hope.

Main Dangers
ASADJUMEIRAH (7/10) – Eyecatcher last time, staying on late. Proven over the trip and surface, stable a bit cold but a fair chance on form.

WITHOUT FLAW (7/10) – Returns to 6f which is ideal, and has been holding her form well. Well drawn (stall 15), usually races prominently but can sit just off. Tina Jackson’s single runners at meetings have returned a profit, so respect.

MRS TRUMP (6/10) – Usually races on the pace and gets the high draw (16). Slight stamina question at a flat 6f in a fierce pace, but form not without merit.

Interesting Outsiders
KORROOR (6/10) – Hit form in the spring and shaped well at Nottingham. A wide draw is favourable, and has shown he handles quick ground. Needs a bit more though.
CAPTAIN PICKLES (6/10) – Three-year-old second start in handicaps, shaped well at Doncaster. Unexposed and improving. Stall 10 is fine. Market move would be significant.

Trends/Trainer Notes

Tracy Waggott has a solid record in this race and with one runner today (Lady of The Garr).

Tina Jackson is profitable when sending a single runner (Without Flaw).

Watch runners returning quickly after recent efforts—GIS A SUB fits this profile.

Beware of LADY OF THE GARR and MRS TRUMP being slow starters; luck in running needed.



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Ratings /10 – Track, Trip, Pace, Class, and Trainer Suitability Considered

Horse Rating

CALAFRIO 9
GIS A SUB 8
LADY OF THE GARR 8
ASADJUMEIRAH 7
WITHOUT FLAW 7
MRS TRUMP 6
KORROOR 6
CAPTAIN PICKLES 6
QUERCUS 5 – not suited by expected race shape
CANARIA QUEEN 5
RAIN CAP 5
HURSTWOOD 5
GOLDEN PROSPERITY 5
DORALEE 4
JURYMAN 3
CROCUS TIME 4 – long layoff, needs market check
IFONLYTHEYCUDTALK 3 – temperament doubt
CHESTER LE STREAK 2 – well below form this season



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Private Tissue Estimate (Value Guide)

Calafrio – 9/2

Lady of The Garr – 13/2

Gis A Sub – 7/1

Without Flaw – 15/2

Asadjumeirah – 8/1

Captain Pickles – 10/1

Korroor – 12/1

Mrs Trump – 12/1

Canaria Queen – 16/1

Others 20/1+



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Summary

A typically open 0–55 sprint with a massive field and pace expected to be strong. The draw clearly favours high numbers and those able to come off the gallop late. Calafrio stands out with her course form, running style, and jockey booking, while Gis A Sub looks poised to benefit most from how the race is likely to unfold. Watch for market confidence behind unexposed sorts like Captain Pickles.


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Smart Play (Professional Punter View)

Win Bet: CALAFRIO – best suited on balance of pace, draw, form and jockey.

Each-Way Saver: GIS A SUB – massive pace collapse angle and a strong late closer from a high draw.


Conditions ideal for a form reversal from Wetherby and plenty of each-way juice in the betting.