> Pace Angle: The race lacks confirmed front-runners and is forecast to be very slowly run. This hands an advantage to those who race prominently or can control the pace. Notably, No But I Will is a habitual front-runner and likely best positioned. Hold-up types like Hardy Diamond and Nathan Wells risk being caught out if there’s no pace to run at.




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Contender Assessment:

Strongest Contenders

No But I Will (TFR 118§): Prominent racer with a solid run last time when second at Uttoxeter. Well-treated on form but not straightforward and tends to find little under pressure. Track and trip look ideal on ground he’s proven on. His run style is a major advantage in this setup, but he trades short and has thrown away races when looking in control.

Hardy Diamond (TFR 116): Lightly raced and unexposed over fences. Excellent second in a Kilbeggan maiden two starts ago. Jumping let him down here latest, but he’s with a yard (Gordon Elliott) who has a 31% strike-rate at Perth. Interesting back up in trip but needs to settle better.


Main Dangers

Garde Des Champs (TFR 117§): Solid course performer and shaped better than result here last time when ridden too patiently in a race not run to suit. Back in trip with more positive tactics likely, and a previous Perth winner under Alan Doyle. Lucinda Russell has won similar races here before.

Okavango Delta (TFR 117): Below par last time at Warwick but a three-time chase winner, including here over similar trips. Suspect record off breaks, but if forgiven that latest effort, he has the substance to bounce back.


Interesting Outsiders

Glen Cannel (TFR 111+): Lightly raced over fences, winning a hunter chase at Perth in May. Fourth here last time in a stronger race than this. A possible improver, but will need a more positive ride.

Nathan Wells (TFR 117): Modest hurdler but now starting to get the hang of fences, placing twice recently at Hexham. Not proven beyond 2m and unlikely to be suited by a slow-run 2m4f.


Others

El Muchacho (TFR 119): Top-rated but temperament a question. Pulled up last time and has changed yards more than once recently. Risky proposition despite good trainer (Murphy) and jockey (Bowen) strike-rates at Perth.

Cooper’s Cross (TFR 110+): Classy at best but 10yo now and coming back from physical issues. Has bled and pulled up repeatedly. Best watched unless the market strongly speaks in his favour.



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Horse-by-Horse Suitability Ratings (Out of 10)

Horse Suitability (Track/Trip/Going) Notes Score

No But I Will 9/10 Proven on ground, ideal trip, tactically advantaged 9
Hardy Diamond 7/10 Unproven jumping, pace setup may not suit hold-up tactics 7
Garde Des Champs 8/10 Tactically versatile, course form, likely to improve if ridden forward 8
Okavango Delta 7.5/10 Forgive latest run; solid form prior, ideally trip/ground 7.5
El Muchacho 6.5/10 Talented but fragile; temperament and last run a concern 6.5
Glen Cannel 6.5/10 Minor upside, could improve with positive tactics 6.5
Nathan Wells 6/10 Trip a question, still developing; minor place claims 6
Cooper’s Cross 4/10 Health concerns, poor form, long absence 4



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Profile Summary

Proven: No But I Will, Garde Des Champs, Okavango Delta

Progressive: Hardy Diamond (if jumping improves), Glen Cannel

Promising: Nathan Wells (to a lesser extent, but unexposed)



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Trends & Trainer Notes

Lucinda Russell: Regular winner of Perth summer handicaps (saddles Garde Des Champs)

Gordon Elliott: 31% strike-rate at Perth; Hardy Diamond a typical type to bounce back

Sean Bowen (El Muchacho): 31% at Perth – strong jockey stat but horse fragile

Keep an eye on: Market support for Cooper’s Cross or Glen Cannel would be notable given recent inactivity



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Private Tissue Estimate

(No direct correlation to forecast odds; based on adjusted ratings, suitability and flags):

Horse Private Odds

No But I Will 7/2
Garde Des Champs 4/1
Hardy Diamond 9/2
Okavango Delta 6/1
Glen Cannel 8/1
El Muchacho 10/1
Nathan Wells 10/1
Cooper’s Cross 20/1



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Summary

This looks a slowly-run handicap chase with clear tactical implications. No But I Will is the most tactically suited and arrives in good order. However, his finishing effort is often lacking. Garde Des Champs is arguably the best value based on course form and could be sharper returned to more positive tactics. Hardy Diamond is risky but remains unexposed and has the right yard behind him.


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Smart Play (Professional Punter View)

Win Bet: Garde Des Champs – Course specialist, tactically versatile, well treated
Saver/Each-Way (8+ runners): Hardy Diamond – Unexposed, potential improver if jumping holds together

Market watching is critical: any positive movement for Glen Cannel or Nathan Wells could indicate confidence.