Pace Forecast: The pace is expected to be even, with Raby Mere likely to adopt a front-running role. Heart Above and Top Flight Century are likely to track the leaders, while Tees Comp’s Clive and Prince Nino are among those typically held up – the latter type needing luck in running.

Draw Bias (Flat/All-Weather): Not applicable here (National Hunt contest).


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Leading Contenders

Raby Mere (108p, 9/10) – Progressive 6yo who made all and quickened smartly at Uttoxeter last time. Back-to-back wins in novice events; now returns to handicaps but remains on a workable mark (OR 97). Still unexposed, with Sean Bowen retaining the ride and trainer Olly Murphy in flying form (notable 47% hurdle strike rate with favs). Proven front-runner well suited to a likely manageable tempo.

Heart Above (106, 7/10) – Has shown a fair level of ability including a solid runner-up finish at Kelso. Unreliable in finish – notably ran out at Perth latest – but acts at the track and on ground. Capable, though temperament raises concerns. One to include for place angles rather than win.

Palm Beach (115, 6/10) – Joins Ben Pauling from a quiet spell for John Dixon. Mark has tumbled (OR 77), and trainer switch alone makes this one dangerous, particularly if backed. May need further ideally but is effective at intermediate trips. Market signals critical.

Top Flight Century (110p, 7/10) – Lightly raced 4yo who shaped with clear promise on handicap debut at Perth. Squeezed for room and finished strongly from rear. Still learning, and this step up in trip should suit. Definitely in the “promising” category. Watch for market support.


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Interesting Outsiders

Malangen (109, 6/10) – Former course winner with a career-low mark (OR 86). Recent third at Hexham not without merit; might benefit from the likely even pace. Best efforts at this trip, but place claims only.

Tees Comp’s Clive (105+, 6/10) – Has shaped better than form figures suggest. Not unexposed but looks a touch one-paced and typically held up, which may be a concern if it gets tactical.

Prince Nino (103, 4/10) – Seems regressive but was once a fair stayer. Market vibes essential here. Yard not firing.


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Unsuited Types & Others

Blow A Fortune (105, 4/10) – Not really shown enough and didn’t take to handicaps.

Beat The Retreat (107, 5/10) – A weak finisher with a mixed profile and exposed at this level.

Benito (NR?) – Looks out of sorts and hard to make a case on recent evidence.

Shantou Lucky (103, 3/10) – On the downgrade and out of form despite being a past C&D winner.

Darkest Day (NR?) – No spark lately; best days behind him.



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Ratings Out of 10 (Suitability: Track/Trip/Going/Current Form)

Horse Suitability Rating (10)

Raby Mere 9
Heart Above 7
Palm Beach 6
Top Flight Century 7
Malangen 6
Tees Comp’s Clive 6
Beat The Retreat 5
Blow A Fortune 4
Benito 2
Shantou Lucky 3
Prince Nino 4
Darkest Day 2


Note: Palm Beach and Top Flight Century should be watched closely in the market due to yard change and potential improvement.


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Private Tissue Estimate

Raby Mere – 5/2

Top Flight Century – 6/1

Heart Above – 7/1

Palm Beach – 8/1

Malangen – 10/1

Tees Comp’s Clive – 12/1

Beat The Retreat – 16/1

Prince Nino – 20/1

Blow A Fortune – 22/1

Benito – 25/1

Shantou Lucky – 28/1

Darkest Day – 33/1



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Summary

This looks like an excellent opportunity for Raby Mere to extend his winning run. He has been dictating races well and should get a good position again under Bowen. Top Flight Century is open to further improvement and makes appeal as the each-way alternative, especially with likely pace to suit his hold-up style. Palm Beach is the dark horse with a major yard change.


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Smart Play

Win Bet – Raby Mere: Proven and progressive, front-runner in good form.

Each-Way Saver (8+ runners) – Top Flight Century: Promising profile, likely improver.