Pace and Draw Angles: A strong pace is predicted, and that typically suits prominent racers over this trip at Bellewstown. The course’s turning nature and the configuration of the final bend favour those drawn low, and this draw bias could be decisive in such a large field. Horses drawn high often need plenty of luck, particularly if they’re also hold-up types.


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Key Contenders:

CARVALHAL – On a consistent run, finishing third in three consecutive handicaps including last time at Gowran where he wasn’t ideally placed. Likes good to firm or heavy, stays 10f well, and gets blinkers again. However, drawn in 18, which is a major negative here. He races prominently, which may help offset it. Progressive and in form.

SAXON KINGDOM – Back in form when third over 7f at Down Royal, staying on late. Won over 1m in May at Gowran, and likely to appreciate the return to this trip. Drawn 11 isn’t ideal, but he’s flexible tactically and goes well off a strong pace. Proven at the trip and class, some upward form line.

CARRICKFINN – Drawn 15 but made a big step forward last time when second in a strongly run race at Gowran. Yet to fully convince beyond 1m. This quirky track may ask a stamina question, and he may need things to fall his way from a wide gate. Promising but needs to back it up.

ROMAN HARRY – Solid third in a big-field handicap at Limerick last time. Has form at the trip and versatile regarding surface. Drawn 9 gives him a fighting chance, and he’s been knocking on the door without quite delivering. Consistent but possibly lacks a winning edge.

EAGLES WHISTLE – Ran his best race of the season last time when third at Leopardstown. Usually held up, so he may need luck. He has the pace to get involved but needs gaps. Drawn 7 is fine. Hold-up type that needs breaks.



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Interesting Outsiders:

AKEELA – Was unlucky at Limerick after meeting traffic late on and shaping well. Drawn 12 isn’t helpful, but is capable if seeing out the trip fully. Hold-up type with a good run in him.

CLEOPATRA’S NEEDLE – Tends to race off the pace and stays well beyond this trip. Caught too far back at Leopardstown, but hard to win with due to her style. Could place if things open up.

TAKEACHANCEJIMMY – Now 11 but has run well at this track before. Trainer has an exceptional level-stake record with sole runners at a meeting. Significant angle.



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Horse-by-Horse Ratings (out of 10): (Assessed on suitability to track, distance, going, class, draw and pace)

CARVALHAL – 8 (progressive but bad draw)

SAXON KINGDOM – 7.5 (proven, okay draw)

CARRICKFINN – 6.5 (promising, stamina doubt, bad draw)

ROMAN HARRY – 7 (consistent, but exposed)

EAGLES WHISTLE – 6.5 (needs breaks, improving)

AKEELA – 6 (unlucky last time, not well drawn)

CLEOPATRA’S NEEDLE – 5.5 (late closer, not easy to win with)

TAKEACHANCEJIMMY – 5 (aged but track form and stable angle)

EXCEEDING – 4 (modest, no big angle)

MAN IS KING – 4 (difficult to catch right)

HASTILY – 3.5 (hard to recommend on recent form)

ZERO FIGHTER – 4 (inconsistent)

BARRYS ROCK – 3 (well below best)

NAVORROSSE – 5.5 (can run into a place, hold-up needs luck)

VANGELIS – 2.5 (unconvincing)

JAZZ DREAMERS – 2 (not enough recent promise)

WAYNE R WALKER – 1.5 (no recent form)

FAMOUS ENOUGH – 3.5 (past form okay, recent efforts underwhelming)



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Private Tissue (win odds):

CARVALHAL – 5/1

SAXON KINGDOM – 11/2

ROMAN HARRY – 7/1

CARRICKFINN – 8/1

EAGLES WHISTLE – 9/1

AKEELA – 12/1

NAVORROSSE – 14/1

CLEOPATRA’S NEEDLE – 14/1

TAKEACHANCEJIMMY – 16/1

Others – 20/1+



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Summary: A big-field handicap where draw and race position will prove crucial. The pace is strong, and that should help the prominent racers hold their ground. Carvalhal brings the strongest recent form and may overcome a wide draw if allowed to stride forward. Saxon Kingdom looks the solid each-way play, with good course form and an adaptable style. Roman Harry and Carrickfinn also appeal, but draw compromises them slightly.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet: CARVALHAL – In-form, progressive, and suited by a strong pace if able to overcome draw.

Each-Way Saver (8+ runners): SAXON KINGDOM – Proven at the trip, course winner, good tactical versatility.