1. Race Conditions and Tactical Setup

This is a Grade 3 contest over 2 miles at Tipperary, with a field of 12 declared runners. The going is good to yielding, which suits most in this field. The pace is expected to be strong, with Gaucher typically racing handily or leading, and Winter Fog known to press from off the pace.

Draw Bias: Not applicable as this is a jumps race on a turning track.


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2. Contenders, Dangers, Outsiders & Trends

Strongest Contenders

JESSE EVANS [TFR 170]: In career-best form when bolting up at Ballinrobe, then not knocked about at Royal Ascot on the Flat. Stays well, handles good-yielding ground and is a past C&D winner. Well-treated at these weights. Strong pace will suit his late kick.

WINTER FOG [TFR 164]: Winner of this race in 2024, has held his form in deeper waters since. He shaped much better than the bare result at Punchestown (Champion Stayers’), and returns to his optimal trip and grade. Leading chance.

GAUCHER [TFR 158]: A prominent racer with three wins last season including here at Tipperary. Fourth in a big-field Punchestown handicap, now drops back into Graded company. Could control things if allowed his own way but may face pressure up front.


Main Dangers

PUTURHANDSTOGETHER [TFR 157]: Fred Winter winner with top juvenile form. Only third at Aintree when conceding first run, but capable of better. Big ask versus older smart hurdlers on seasonal reappearance.

ENNISKERRY [TFR 163]: Veteran with strong handicap form last winter. Has gone well fresh and shapes as a strong traveller. Trip/ground both fine, one to keep on side if market speaks.

BATMAN GIRAC [TFR 155]: Capable when on song (won well at Killarney), but has mixed chase/hurdle profile and temperament flagged. Hood/tongue tie remain.


Interesting Outsiders

FEUD [TFR 147p]: Lightly raced improver, won two novices in 2024 and shaped well in both. Missed recent months but open to improvement. Strong-travelling type who could go well fresh.

ZARIYGANN [TFR 146+]: Took scalps like Gaucher last season but shaped as if amiss latest. Hard to assess but previous hurdles form is solid.

SMOOTH TOM [TFR 160]: Bounced back with ready Cork win in April in first-time visor over hurdles. Tailed off on Flat since, but if he’s on a going day, has claims.


Others

FILS D’OUDAIRIES [TFR 156]: Won this race in 2023, but latest form is weak and profile is regressive.

STORMALONG [TFR 151]: In-form mare and Listed winner at Killarney, but this looks a notch above her ceiling.

SUNCHART [TFR 147]: Fit from Flat but form level likely short of what’s required.


Key Trends & Notes

W. P. Mullins has won 5 of the last 10 renewals and saddles Winter Fog, Batman Girac, and Gaucher.

Fils d’Oudairies and Winter Fog are past winners of this race.

Hold-up types like Jesse Evans, Winter Fog, and Feud will need a clean run given the likely strong early fractions.

Fitness watch: Feud, Puturhandstogether, Zariygann all return from 90+ day layoffs.



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3. Runner Ratings (Track, Trip, Going Suitability)

Horse Suitability Score (Track/Trip/Going) Notes

JESSE EVANS 9/10 In peak form, proven track & trip
WINTER FOG 9/10 Past winner, acts fresh, trip ideal
GAUCHER 7.5/10 Wants to lead, may face pace pressure
PUTURHANDSTOGETHER 7/10 Lacks recent run, big test vs older
ENNISKERRY 8/10 Can go well fresh, solid winter form
BATMAN GIRAC 7/10 Capable, but risky temperament
FEUD 7.5/10 Promising, lightly raced, fitness doubt
ZARIYGANN 6.5/10 Talented but pulled up latest
SMOOTH TOM 7.5/10 Hard to trust, but talent there
FILS D’OUDAIRIES 5/10 Regressive profile, past winner
SUNCHART 5/10 Flat-based form, lacks class edge
STORMALONG 5.5/10 Improving but up against it here



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4. Each-Way Angles

There are 12 declared runners, so each-way betting applies at 1/5 odds for the first 3.

ENNISKERRY (12/1 range) appeals each-way. Solid winter form and goes fresh. Has tactical versatility and is overpriced if fit.

FEUD also falls into each-way consideration as a promising type whose ceiling isn’t yet defined.



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5. Private Tissue Estimate (based on all factors)

Horse Odds

JESSE EVANS 4/1
WINTER FOG 9/2
GAUCHER 6/1
PUTURHANDSTOGETHER 7/1
ENNISKERRY 9/1
BATMAN GIRAC 10/1
FEUD 12/1
SMOOTH TOM 14/1
ZARIYGANN 16/1
FILS D’OUDAIRIES 20/1
STORMALONG 25/1
SUNCHART 33/1



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Summary

A high-quality renewal with solid depth. Jesse Evans brings top-level recent form, is suited by pace conditions and is highly reliable at this trip. Winter Fog, last year’s winner, drops back from Grade 1 company and looks primed. Gaucher and Puturhandstogether are respected on form, but the former may face tactical challenges while the latter must prove effectiveness against seasoned hurdlers. Interesting cases can be made for Feud and Enniskerry as lively outsiders if fit.


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Smart Play – Professional Punter View

Win bet: JESSE EVANS – form pick, travels well, tactically suited, best adjusted rating
Each-way saver: ENNISKERRY – goes fresh, strong traveller, handles conditions, decent price

> Top two bets:

1. Jesse Evans (win)


2. Enniskerry (each-way, 12+ runners)





Keep a close eye on market signals for Feud and Puturhandstogether, both returning from layoffs but with unexposed profiles.