Pace & Draw Angles: Forecast pace: Strong – Likely a contested race early, which may favour strong travellers with a turn of foot. The track typically rewards those prominent or on the pace at this trip. Draw Bias: Against High – Horses drawn wide may struggle to find a good early position unless quickly into stride.

Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders:

BELIEVE THE STORM (IRE): Lightly raced and progressive, 99 rated, ran a close second on handicap debut and has a pace-advantaged profile from stall 8. Solid form behind Unassuming at Yarmouth. Ticks boxes for track, trip, and forecast pace setup. Promising.

MIDNIGHT’S DREAM (IRE): 100 rated, course winner, trainer in form (25% strike rate at Kempton), should be well suited by strong pace and prominent tactics. Proven performer. Major player.

SKY SAFARI: 97 rated, bounce-back potential after Royal Ascot, has won here and remains unexposed on AW. Prominent runner, draw 5 helps. Watch for market support.

KALAMUNDA: Consistent and solid at this level (97), but drawn 11 which is unfavourable with strong pace forecast. Might need luck. Not dismissed.

AL WAQIDI: 96+, long absence (137 days), tongue-tied again. Trainer Saffie Osborne’s yard often goes well off breaks, but market watch advised due to absence.

CEPHALUS: 97 rated, one of the few confirmed closers with stamina for 1¼m. Might get outpaced early but will be staying on. Needs pace to collapse.

DEBORA’S DREAM (IRE): 98 rated, draw 9 no help, but often held up and a strong pace helps. Last run excused, often trades big in running. Value outsider if bouncing back.

MILETUS (IRE): 97 rated, returns after a short layoff. Still unexposed but needs a major step up and draw 10 is a challenge.

GIANT: 96 rated, exposed and regressing. Best efforts at 7f, stamina suspect at 1m in strong-run race.

KOY KOY: 93 rated, temperament suspect, recent runs poor. Others far more solid.

FINSCEAL LUAS: 95 rated, typically front runs, could be taken on for lead and wide draw doesn’t help. Looks vulnerable late on.


Timeform Trends & Comments:

“Forecast of a strong pace at a trip and track where prominent racers are normally favoured anyway still shouldn’t detract from the chances of MIDNIGHT’S DREAM while advancing those of BELIEVE THE STORM.”

DEBORA’S DREAM trades big and wins from in rear: suited by pace here.

Roger Varian (trainer of MIDNIGHT’S DREAM) has a 25% strike rate at Kempton.

Jennie Candlish (DEBORA’S DREAM) and Gary & Josh Moore (CEPHALUS) have horses who shape better than bare form suggests.


Suitability Ratings (out of 10):

Horse Suitability

BELIEVE THE STORM 9
MIDNIGHT’S DREAM 9
SKY SAFARI 8
KALAMUNDA 6
AL WAQIDI 6
CEPHALUS 6
DEBORA’S DREAM 7
MILETUS 5
GIANT 3
KOY KOY 2
FINSCEAL LUAS 4


Private Tissue Estimate:

BELIEVE THE STORM – 3/1

MIDNIGHT’S DREAM – 4/1

SKY SAFARI – 11/2

KALAMUNDA – 8/1

CEPHALUS – 10/1

DEBORA’S DREAM – 12/1

AL WAQIDI – 12/1

Others 20/1+


Summary: A strong pace sets up well for tactically versatile or held-up runners with a turn of foot. BELIEVE THE STORM has shown promise, is lightly raced, and looks the most progressive. MIDNIGHT’S DREAM is proven, races prominently and is ideally suited to how this race is expected to unfold. SKY SAFARI could rebound and makes some each-way appeal in double-digit fields.

Smart Play (Top 2 Bets):

WIN BET: BELIEVE THE STORM – Progressive, tactical speed, and stamina with a favourable pace map.

EACH-WAY SAVER (11+ runners): MIDNIGHT’S DREAM – Proven, in-form trainer, ideally drawn for a front-runner in a strong pace race.