Race Conditions & Tactical Shape

Class 3 Handicap for 4yo+ rated up to 90, worth £8,246.

A field of 14 line up on polytrack over an extended 1m3f.

Pace Forecast: Strong. With confirmed front-runners like FLASH BARDOT and handy racers like KITTY FURNIVAL, the tempo looks solid.

Pace Bias: Typically, prominent runners are favoured at this trip at Kempton, but today’s strong pace could set it up for a closer.

Draw Bias: No significant draw bias over this trip on the AW at Kempton.



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Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders

Leading Contenders:

SIEMPRE ARTURO (12/1) – Strong C&D effort behind Haku in May when shaping best of all. Excuses at York (unsuitable trip/pattern). Trainer in form and Jim Crowley booked again. Best suited to strong pace from handy draw; gets 8/10.

KITTY FURNIVAL (4/1) – Improved filly who knuckled down well to win at Lingfield. Versatile and stays this trip well. Trainer combination successful with similar types. Likely to be prominent; just needs a good start. Progressive. 8.5/10.

CHARMAINE (9/2) – Rapid improver for Fanshawe, including C&D win and strong second at Chester. Travels well and holds a consistent profile. Could find further improvement on AW. Proven. 9/10.


Main Dangers:

ASSAIL (17/2) – Lightly raced 5yo with form at Kempton. Forgive Newmarket run (not clear run). Likely to track leaders from a wide draw. Trainer in form. 7.5/10.

FLASH BARDOT (12/1) – Stays well, can run fresh, and trainer does well with single runners at meetings. Will need luck coming from off the pace but stays better than most. Interesting profile. 7.5/10.

GRAND PROVIDENCE (11/1) – Back to a more suitable trip after racing over extreme distances. Has Kempton form. Well-handicapped if bouncing back. 7.5/10.


Interesting Outsiders:

OCEAN OF DREAMS (12/1) – Ex-O’Brien, shaping like he needs a test, which this race might provide. Should be finishing off. Watch for support. 7/10.

ARQOOB (12/1) – Course winner, should relish strong pace but has quirks and needs a precise ride. Hold-up type. 6.5/10.


Hold-up Risk Horses:

FLASH BARDOT, OCEAN OF DREAMS, ARQOOB – all likely to be at the back early and need gaps late.


Trainer Note: Andrew Balding has won this race twice in the past 10 years (GRAND PROVIDENCE).

Layoff Watch: HIGH ORDER (271 days off) and GRAND PROVIDENCE (369 days before recent comeback) both need close market monitoring for fitness confidence.


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Ratings out of 10

Horse Suitability (Going, Track, Distance) Overall Mark

Siempre Arturo AW + strong pace + distance ideal 8
Kitty Furnival Polytrack + pace + distance 8.5
Charmaine Course, pace and form very solid 9
Assail C&D, trainer form, profile 7.5
Flash Bardot Strong closer, needs luck 7.5
Grand Providence Trainer stat, stamina edge 7.5
Ocean of Dreams Improving, needs strong pace 7
Arqoob Needs luck, well treated 6.5
Way of Life Not totally reliable 6
Kind of Kiss Might not stay 6
Forest Gate Lacks recent form 5.5
Sierra Blanca Trip doubts, often slowly away 5
Incensed Needs to prove class 5
High Order Big layoff, hard to judge 5



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Private Tissue Odds (not Timeform)

1. Charmaine – 9/2


2. Kitty Furnival – 5/1


3. Siempre Arturo – 13/2


4. Assail – 15/2


5. Flash Bardot – 8/1


6. Grand Providence – 10/1


7. Ocean of Dreams – 10/1


8. Arqoob – 12/1


9. Others – 14/1+




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Summary & Smart Play

A competitive AW handicap likely to be run at a strong gallop, which could bring closers into play. Charmaine stands out as a progressive, proven type with a nice profile for this race. Kitty Furnival is also upwardly mobile, while Siempre Arturo has shaped better than bare results and is back under ideal conditions.

Smart Play:

Win – Charmaine

Each Way – Siempre Arturo (if 8+ runners remain)


Watch the market for any late moves on returnees like High Order or improvers like Ocean of Dreams.