Pace: Strong forecast – several habitual front-runners (e.g. Smoke Them Out, Only Spoofing, Reinforce) suggest this could set up for a strong pace collapse.
Draw Bias: Not significant over Bellewstown’s 5f trip historically, but middle-to-low often hold slight advantage if ground is fast and pace is up top.


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Contenders, Dangers, Outsiders & Timeform Insights

Leading Contenders:

AURORA NOVA (TFR 85) – Proven performer at this venue (C&D winner), back to form with an impressive 2¾-length win at Down Royal. Effective on all goings. Usual slow starter but finishes strongly. Must overcome a hold-up style that may be traffic-prone in a big field. Danger if she gets a run.

BILLIE BE QUICK (TFR 84) – Progressive 3yo filly who has won two of her last three. Strong late burst last time, well suited to strong pace. Slight concern about potential slow starts, but she looks the type to improve again. Cheekpieces help her travel and quicken. Promising profile.

EMERALD HARMONY (TFR 86) – Proven Bellewstown performer (April C&D winner), well-handicapped on that and her Cork fourth two runs ago. Slight dip last time but good overall profile; trainer in strong form (John Murtagh). Drawn 7—well positioned to track pace.


Main Dangers:

SMOKE THEM OUT (TFR 86) – Promising type whose recent form may not reflect true ability—hampered last time and had excuses. Best judged on Curragh run (6th of 23, beaten just 2¼L). Tactically versatile and may be underestimated, especially if strong pace collapses. Must improve to win, but could be lurking.

ONLY SPOOFING (TFR 84) – Proven at the trip, all 8 wins over 5f. Now 11 but retains ability; shaped better than result at Navan two back. Strong pace suits, but he’s reliant on race collapsing and not easy to predict.


Interesting Outsiders:

MICKEY THE STEEL – Tends to race prominently, but recent form is poor and hard to recommend with confidence. Might help force the pace but vulnerable in final furlong. Cold yard.

REINFORCE – Out of form and low confidence profile despite previous wins. Another pace angle, possibly helping set the race up for closers.

PLASTIC PADDY – Strongly opposable. Not suited to sprinting and well held in both recent turf runs. Best form is on AW over further. Unsuited on all fronts.



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Notable Timeform Comments and Trends:

KILMOOD SUSAN (NR) was rated top (TFR 87) and seen as likely pace angle and strong contender; her withdrawal shifts pace favourably for closers.

Trainer Watch: John Murtagh (EMERALD HARMONY) in form. Kevin Coleman (ONLY SPOOFING) has a strong record when running single runners at a meeting.

Flags and Profile Types: BILLIE BE QUICK (progressive 3yo), AURORA NOVA (proven C&D), SMOKE THEM OUT (promising, with excuses last time).



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Suitability & Ratings (Marks out of 10)

Horse Suitability Notes Rating

Aurora Nova Proven at C&D, in peak form, strong closer with slight hold-up risk 8.5/10
Billie Be Quick Progressive, quickens well, unexposed 3yo, slight start concern 8/10
Emerald Harmony Well drawn, track winner, reliable type, solid back form 7.5/10
Smoke Them Out Better than last run, unexposed, trip/trainer form OK 7/10
Only Spoofing Still running well at 11, pace collapse angle, not improving 6.5/10
Mickey The Steel Pace angle only, out of sorts, better on slower ground 5/10
Reinforce Badly out of form, pace angle, limited upside 4/10
Plastic Paddy Wrong trip, wrong track, returning from absence 3/10



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Private Tissue Estimate (Value-Based Odds)

Horse Tissue Odds

Aurora Nova 3/1
Billie Be Quick 7/2
Emerald Harmony 9/2
Smoke Them Out 7/1
Only Spoofing 10/1
Mickey The Steel 20/1
Reinforce 33/1
Plastic Paddy 66/1



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Summary & Smart Play

This handicap features several last-time-out winners, but the withdrawal of front-runner Kilmood Susan boosts the chances of closers. Aurora Nova and Billie Be Quick are both in peak form and look the most likely winners, especially if the pace burns out. Emerald Harmony could easily bounce back, and Smoke Them Out represents the unexposed each-way angle.

Smart Play:

Win Bet: Aurora Nova – Proven at the track, thriving, and well set up by the pace.

Each-Way Saver (9+ runners): Smoke Them Out – Forgive last run, likely underestimated, and could pounce late.


Closers to the fore if pace collapses. Watch for late market strength.