Pace Angle: Weak overall pace; few habitual front-runners, a tactical affair likely.
Draw Angle: No meaningful bias, central stalls potentially best due to even pace map.


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Strongest Contenders:

THUNDER STAR (88 TFR) – Defends unbeaten record over C&D and arrives off a career-best effort when narrowly denied at Yarmouth after a break. Handles a range of goings, finishes strongly, but needs luck in running due to tardy starts. Best recent form on show.

MISS BRAZEN (86 TFR) – Made all in a modest Thirsk handicap last time, benefitting from rail and weak opposition. Back up in grade, but has tactical speed to exploit a weak pace setup here. Key is whether she can maintain her effort against better closers.

TIVA (86 TFR) – Improving 3yo from David O’Meara; lightly raced and consistently shaping well. Lacks early dash but runs through the line strongly. Stable is shrewd with 3yo sprint handicappers.

BOYNE LADY (84 TFR) – Has run well in deep York handicaps and shaped better than bare result latest. Progressive and a fast-finisher, but may get too far back. Watch for market move – has the scope to defy current mark.


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Main Dangers:

ALONDRA (83 TFR) – Highly consistent 3yo filly running well in steadily-run races. Unlucky not to go closer at Newmarket. Slight stamina angle at 5f but the likely strong gallop will help. Still unexposed at the trip.

ALPINE GIRL (85 TFR) – Comes off a break and shaped OK on return; 5f on quick ground should suit ideally. Has tactical speed but has looked weak in a finish; market check advised on second run for yard.


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Outsider Note:

PROFITABLE EDGE (TFR ?) – Well handicapped on 2024 form but out of sorts this term. Had a breathing op before last start and could bounce back at a price. Will try to force the pace.


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Timeform Trends:

Last five winners: aged 3–5, all rated 67–75.

Winners typically raced prominently and had prior C&D or recent winning form.

Trainers Jessica Macey, David O’Meara, and Roger Fell all have solid sprint records.



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Ratings Out of 10:

Thunder Star – 9 (course form, strong finisher, top adjusted rating)

Miss Brazen – 8 (tactical edge, but stamina and class questions)

Tiva – 8 (progressive 3yo, improving, watch market)

Boyne Lady – 7 (needs pace collapse, talent there)

Alondra – 7 (versatile, consistent, not a 5f natural)

Alpine Girl – 6 (second start back, quirky but capable)

Profitable Edge – 4 (past it? needs revival, but on best form could place)



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Thunder Star 3/1

Tiva 9/2

Miss Brazen 5/1

Boyne Lady 11/2

Alondra 6/1

Alpine Girl 8/1

Profitable Edge 16/1



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Summary:

A tightly-knit 7-runner sprint where THUNDER STAR has the strongest form and is ideally drawn to track the pace before pouncing late. TIVA is a dangerous improver from a yard that excels with such types. MISS BRAZEN has a pace angle but may be vulnerable late.


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Smart Play (Top 2 Bets):

Win – THUNDER STAR: Proven over C&D, top-rated, good last-time run.

Each Way (if betting without favourite) – TIVA: Progressive 3yo with scope to improve further.


Keep an eye on the market for Alpine Girl (second run back) and Boyne Lady (if strong support arrives).