Pace and Draw Angles

At Newton Abbot over 2m 167y, front-runners tend to dominate small fields with little pace, particularly when the ground is riding quick. Hold-up horses can find themselves compromised unless there’s a strong gallop – unlikely here.

Most likely front-runner: Max of Stars, who’s made all here previously, is well-drawn to take advantage again.
Pace-dependent risk: Get The Value, a closer, might face a tactical disadvantage if unable to lie handier.


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Contenders Analysis

Strongest Contenders:

SEEYOUINMYDREAMS (7/10)
Unbeaten at the course and arrives in great form. Has improved with a breathing operation and hails from the Paul Nicholls yard, who is 31% at Newton Abbot. Proven over slightly further but suited by quick ground. Made all in a small field last time and likely to attempt same here. Temperament sound but has been free-going.

MAX OF STARS (7/10)
Consistent and progressive now, acts well at this course, and has twice made all here. Breathing op may have helped her improvement, and she’s suited by the likely steady pace. Still has to prove stamina fully over this trip but showed she can last it out under an aggressive ride. Risk of head carriage concerns under pressure.


Main Danger:

GET THE VALUE (6/10)
Form has levelled off after two strong wins. Just caught last time but had ideal race setup. May not get same here. Likely to be held up and risks being outpaced. Still, his course form is solid, and he’s tactically versatile enough to sit handier if asked.


Interesting Outsider:

WAR LORD (5/10)
Useful in his day, but recent irregular heartbeat and mixed form make him a risky proposition. Has gone well fresh in past and trainer has a good record here (22%). Watch the market – if strong, may be fitter than last time.


Unproven and Vulnerable:

OLD BRIDGE (3/10)
Patchy and modest form since joining David Pipe. More exposed than others and not progressing. No pace angle in favour. Likely outclassed.



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Horse Ratings (Out of 10)

Horse Going Pace Field Draw Class Track Dist Trainer Jockey Total

Seeyouinmydreams 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 70/90 (7.8)
Max of Stars 7 9 7 8 6 8 6 6 7 68/90 (7.5)
Get The Value 6 5 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 60/90 (6.6)
War Lord 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 55/90 (6.1)
Old Bridge 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 45/90 (5.0)



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Private Tissue Estimate

1. Seeyouinmydreams – 15/8


2. Max of Stars – 11/4


3. Get The Value – 3/1


4. War Lord – 7/1


5. Old Bridge – 12/1




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Summary & Trends

Small-field tactical affair; front-runners heavily favoured.

Paul Nicholls has a 31% strike rate here; his mare could boss this again.

Max of Stars is a dual course winner and will be on the premises.

Get The Value risks being caught out by the race setup.

Market key for War Lord after heart issue and layoff.



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Smart Play

Win Bet: SEEYOUINMYDREAMS – progressive, tactically suited, and with course form.
Each-Way Saver (if market allows): MAX OF STARS – if allowed a soft lead, she’s very dangerous.

Keep a close eye on late market moves for WAR LORD and GET THE VALUE, especially if either is notably strong in the betting close to the off.