Pace & Draw Angles:
With only nine runners and a weak pace forecast, this race is likely to suit those who race prominently or can sit handily without needing a strong gallop. There’s no draw bias over hurdles at Newton Abbot, but positioning will be key given the likely tactical nature of the race.

Race Shape & Suitability Analysis:

1. DANCINGONTHEEDGE (FR) – 7/10
Paul Nicholls’ mare is consistent but not prolific. Stays well and acts on the ground, though her weak finishing effort last time raises doubts. Still, her mark is competitive, and she’s a CD winner with strong Newton Abbot stats for both trainer and jockey. Lacks tactical toe in slowly run races but capable if it becomes a stamina test.


2. OUR PINK LADY (IRE) – 7/10
Strong pace profiling for today’s setup, being prominent in steadily run races. Consistent in mares’ company and usually well-positioned. Place prospects solid, but she tends to find one or two too strong late on. Not unexposed, but still fairly handicapped.


3. KLERVIA (FR) – 5/10
Modest form in low-grade races, but shaping as though the step up in trip will suit. Trainer doesn’t have a strong record in this class. Hard to recommend as a win candidate, but not dismissed for minor money if she improves for this distance.


4. HURST HILL (IRE) – 6/10
Could have more to offer back over further. Has shaped fairly on occasion and could benefit if the race becomes a stamina slog. Inconsistent overall, and not obviously well treated.


5. MISS POPALONG – 7/10
Lightly raced, progressive profile in this class. Ran well at Ffos Las in a similar race last time. Well treated on that evidence, and her trainer knows how to place one. Could build on that effort, though stamina at an end-to-end gallop might test her. Still promising at this level.


6. KENMYA (FR) – 8/10
Progressive profile and a significant recent eyecatcher when just run down at Bangor. Skelton has a strong record in such races, and this mare has tactical speed to make use of a steady gallop. Obvious player, although stepping up in trip by 6f is a notable unknown. Likely best in a tactical setup.


7. LUNA RUN (IRE) – 6/10
Bounced back to form two starts ago and has shaped better since being ridden closer. Slight stamina doubts, but clearly capable on her day and from the right yard. Needs to settle early and avoid errors.


8. ORGANIC (IRE) – 3/10
Very limited hurdling form and bombed out on the Flat recently. No sign of progress and best watched.


9. PRETTY PUNCTUAL – 2/10
Unexposed but with minimal ability shown so far. Related to good stayers, but shown nothing in four starts.



Key Contenders:

Kenmya (progressive and dangerous with tactical speed)

Miss Popalong (lightly raced and improving)

Dancingontheedge (proven and consistent in this grade)

Our Pink Lady (suits the race shape but lacks finishing edge)


Interesting Outsiders:

Hurst Hill if stamina is needed and the race falls apart.


Significant Trends & Trainer/Jockey Stats:

Nicholls and Cobden: 31% and 26% respectively at Newton Abbot

Skelton is in hot form and excels in weakly run handicap hurdles

Repeat winners possible: Dancingontheedge won this race last year (div I)


Private Tissue (fair odds estimate):

Kenmya – 3/1

Miss Popalong – 9/2

Dancingontheedge – 5/1

Our Pink Lady – 11/2

Luna Run – 6/1

Hurst Hill – 10/1

Klervia – 16/1

Pretty Punctual – 33/1

Organic – 40/1


Summary:
A trappy Class 5 mares’ handicap where tactical speed may be decisive. Kenmya is open to the most improvement and looks ideally suited to today’s conditions if staying the extra trip. Dancingontheedge and Our Pink Lady are proven but have vulnerabilities. Miss Popalong is lightly raced and improving.

Smart Play:
Win – KENMYA (proven in form, promising profile)
Each-Way Saver – MISS POPALONG (lightly raced and on an upward curve)