Pace: Strong | Draw Bias: Against Low

Tactical Setup:
There’s a significant forecast of early pace from various quarters, notably from Eruption, Far At Sea, and Pinmoney, but this may set things up for more patiently ridden or midfield types drawn away from the inside rail. Historically, prominent racers are well-suited to this trip at Naas, but the strong pace could create a collapse scenario favouring strong finishers like Carrigans Grove or Jackandthefox.


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Key Contenders

CARRIGANS GROVE (10/10) – Proven

TFR 68 | OR 60

Dual winner this season, including over C&D (beat American In Paris).

Front-runner/midfield versatile, thrives off a strong gallop.

Proven at 6f on good ground, in-form trainer, apprentice claims 7lb.

Well drawn in 15 for a stalk-and-pounce ride.


JACKANDTHEFOX (9/10) – Progressive

TFR 72 | OR 47

Strong second at Fairyhouse in a big-field sprint; holds form well.

Likely suited by a strong pace, ideally drawn in 13 to avoid the dead rail.

Often races prominently but not rigidly front-running – setup suits.


AMERICAN IN PARIS (8/10) – Fair and in form

TFR 70 | OR 45

Just denied by Carrigans Grove last time over C&D.

Better suited by not being forced to lead – solid claims from stall 12.

Each-way material if 4 places offered.


HELL LEFT LOOSE (7/10) – Interesting outsider

TFR 67 | OR 40

Back to form with 3rd at Limerick, a former fair performer returning to form.

Better drawn wide (19), now third start back off a long break.


LIVINGSTON RANGE (7/10) – Course winner, each-way angle

TFR 67 | OR 42

Back to form two starts ago; best runs have been from midfield off strong pace.

Drawn 14, tactically suited; stable capable in this class.



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Others of Note

GOLDMOYNE (6/10) – Front-runner but drawn in 1, against bias. Second-up after long layoff.

STANHOPE (5/10) – Now 11, profile less reliable, modest handicapper.

ANNIE LAVINIA (6/10) – Hard to catch right; headgear persistently tried.

FAR AT SEA, ERUPTION (4/10) – Strong pace influence but unlikely to sustain it.



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Hold-Up Risks

Hero of the Hour, Breath of You, Taudeni, and Lakota Lady tend to race from the rear, and could need luck in running in a compressed finish despite the setup looking favourable for closers.



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Trainer Trends

Livingston Range won this in 2023. Carrigans Grove’s trainer, Patrick Flynn, is reliable at keeping horses fit between runs. John McConnell runs multiple, but his strike-rate in this bracket is modest.



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Ratings (Suitability Score /10)

Horse Rating

Carrigans Grove 10
Jackandthefox 9
American In Paris 8
Hell Left Loose 7
Livingston Range 7
Goldmoyne 6
Annie Lavinia 6
Stanhope 5
Hero Of The Hour 5
Rosato 4
Miqdaad 4
Far At Sea 4
Lakota Lady 4
Taudeni 3
Breath of You 3
James The Second 5
Arcoiris 3
Pinmoney 3
Eruption 4



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Private Tissue (win odds estimation)

Carrigans Grove – 9/2

Jackandthefox – 6/1

American In Paris – 13/2

Hell Left Loose – 10/1

Livingston Range – 11/1

Goldmoyne – 12/1

Annie Lavinia – 14/1

Stanhope – 16/1

Rest 20/1+



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Summary

This is a low-grade sprint with a strong early gallop expected and a historical bias against low draws at Naas over 6f. That could prove decisive tactically. Carrigans Grove looks solid to uphold form and land a third win of the season, while Jackandthefox looks overdue for a breakthrough and is best positioned to pounce late. The likes of American In Paris, Livingston Range, and Hell Left Loose are well-handicapped and drawn to exploit the race shape.


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Smart Play

Win – Carrigans Grove (proven, tactically versatile, drawn ideally)
Each-Way Saver – Jackandthefox (progressive, pace setup perfect, nicely drawn)

Market watch advised on Hell Left Loose (3rd run back), and American In Paris (workmanlike profile, may need things to fall right).