Pace Forecast: Very Weak

Pace Angle: With a projected slow pace, those racing prominently could benefit. Candleford is expected to race handier than Teumessias Fox, who is typically held up.

Draw Angle: Not applicable due to the small field and the nature of this long-distance race.


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Contenders Breakdown

CANDLEFORD (IRE) – 9/10
A proven smart performer at this level. Although he flopped in the Hardwicke Stakes on return (perhaps amiss), he has strong Listed form, including a win at the Curragh in 2024. Prominent racing style suits this expected pace scenario. William Haggas has an excellent mid-season strike rate (23%) and excels with stayers (24% over 10f+). Has run to 126 and could bounce back quickly.

TEUMESSIAS FOX (IRE) – 8/10
Smart handicapper who ran creditably in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot. The weak pace may not suit his usual hold-up tactics. However, his record on this type of ground is solid, and he’s consistent at 1½ miles. Might need more of a test to be seen at best. A place chance if he gets the splits.

KARMOLOGY – 7.5/10
Resilient mare who got close in a Pontefract listed race last time. While she lacks the outright class of Candleford, she’s admirably consistent and goes on all ground. Should race close to the pace, which is an advantage here. Not much between her and Teumessias Fox based on recent efforts.

RAJA RAJA – 6.5/10
Progressed to win a handicap well at Southwell in December. Looked outclassed in a Group 3 on seasonal return and will need another step forward. Trainer David Simcock has a good record in this race (2 winners in 10 years). Will likely be held up; place squeak if the pace collapses.

ABINGWORTH – 4/10
Useful chaser returning to the Flat. Recent fourth at Goodwood wasn’t devoid of promise, but this looks far too hot. Trainer James Owen is in form but hard to see him being competitive at this level.


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Trends and Timeform Insights

Candleford has the highest adjusted Timeform rating (126).

Past winners were all aged 4-6, suggesting Abingworth (7) might be disadvantaged.

Haggas has a strong record mid-season and with stayers.

Watch out for a market move on Candleford bouncing back quickly.



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Private Tissue Estimate

Candleford – 10/11

Teumessias Fox – 3/1

Karmology – 4/1

Raja Raja – 14/1

Abingworth – 50/1



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Race Summary

This Listed contest looks to revolve around Candleford, who can be forgiven his comeback run in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes. If returning to his previous Listed-winning form, he should prove too strong. Teumessias Fox and Karmology both have place claims but may need either a stronger pace or Candleford to underperform. Raja Raja and Abingworth are stepping up significantly in class.


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Smart Play

Win bet: CANDLEFORD – Class edge and should be better suited to this slower-paced small field than at Royal Ascot.
Each-way saver: KARMOLGY – Should be better placed than Teumessias Fox and running consistently at this level.