Pace & Draw Setup

A fierce gallop is likely with several habitual front-runners including Brains, Eastern Wind, and Rock Etoile—a notable pace pressure cluster.

With the track favouring low draws historically in strongly run races, inside-to-mid gates (stalls 1–7) hold a tactical edge.

Hold-up horses from high draws—especially those drawn 13+—risk being stranded wide or too far back.



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Contenders & Profiles

Strongest Contenders

DAONETHATGOTAWAY (TFR 78) – Proven and consistent on AW, but needs to show he’s equally effective on turf; excellent adjusted ratings, tactically versatile, drawn well in 13 for a stalk-and-pounce role. Respected despite layoff (112 days); trainer profitable with single runners and after breaks.

HELIOGABALUS (TFR 78) – Progressive for new yard and comes here fit off a good second at Limerick; well drawn, fair mark (OR 64), and no obvious pace bias issues. Might need luck from off the pace, but is improving.

THINK ABOUT IT (TFR 69) – Promising 3yo, best effort yet when fifth at Cork off layoff; progressive and likely to improve again under J.P. Murtagh’s hot yard. Strong stamina influence in pedigree and drawn nicely in 9.


Main Dangers

THE BOG BANK (TFR 73) – Course specialist with two Bellewstown wins in 2024, thrives off strong pace setups. Well treated on last winning form and nicely berthed in stall 1. Could repeat.

RAMPAGE (TFR 78) – On a fair mark and shaped okay two runs back; track winner and drawn to stalk pace in 7. Trainer in poor form but is a course horse.

LA LA LUCRATIVE (TFR 76) – Won convincingly two starts back, but draw in 11 and a regression last time raise questions. Will need pace collapse.


Interesting Outsiders

ALBION POWER (TFR 77) – Still unexposed on turf and likely to be held up, which may suit this pace. Could hit a place late from stall 10 if pace collapses.

EUTROPIA (TFR 71p) – Handicap debutant, ran poorly in maiden last time, but Timeform expect improvement; not dismissed lightly from stall 15.

ZABEIR – Long layoff (212 days) but capable of sharp runs fresh. Watch market.



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Runner Ratings /10 (Track–Trip–Tactics Fit)

Horse Rating/10 Comments

Daonethatgotaway 8 Proven, consistent, good mark, turf is the question
Heliogabalus 8 Progressive, solid last run, draw okay
Think About It 7 Promising 3yo, form solid, must settle
The Bog Bank 7 Bellewstown lover, ground/pacing ideal
Rampage 6 Course horse, shape okay, cold yard a negative
La La Lucrative 6 Capable but drawn high and unreliable
Albion Power 6 Better than Roscommon run, big late-race angle
Rock Etoile 4 Out of form, unlikely to last home with pace
Catherine Chroi 5 Well drawn, speed-type, likely outpaced late
Mythical Rock 4 Lost form, turf performances weak
Eutropia 6 ‘P’ rating suggests improvement expected
Zabeir 4 May need run but some ability; market watcher
Loaded Quiver 3 Well beaten latest, unknown quantity for yard
Benavente 6 On a good mark, but pace may find him out
Eastern Wind 4 Strong pace will hurt front-runner from 6
Punk Poet 3 Out of form, drop in trip no help
Brains 4 Strong front-runner, vulnerable to collapse
Marianne North 2 No compelling turf form, hard to fancy



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Profile Types

Proven: Daonethatgotaway, The Bog Bank

Progressive: Heliogabalus, Think About It

Promising: Eutropia (handicap debut)



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Each-Way Angles (EW terms 4 places, 18 runners)

Heliogabalus – improving, strong turf second last time, looks ready to strike.

Albion Power – potentially overpriced for late-running angle.

The Bog Bank – loves the venue, thrives on this pace.



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Private Tissue Estimate (Fair Odds Guide)

Daonethatgotaway – 4/1

Heliogabalus – 5/1

Think About It – 13/2

The Bog Bank – 8/1

Albion Power – 12/1

Benavente – 14/1

Rampage – 14/1

Eutropia – 14/1

Rest – 20/1 bar


Watch the market for: Eutropia (2nd start), Daonethatgotaway (off 112 days), Zabeir (off 212 days).


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Summary

A fierce pace could set the race up for a progressive closer. Daonethatgotaway brings solid AW form and is attractively weighted if converting that to turf. Heliogabalus is the clear improver for a new stable and should relish this setup. Think About It is the unexposed 3yo wildcard from a hot yard. The Bog Bank is a serious place angle on track preference and strong pace suitability.


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Smart Play

Win Bet: Heliogabalus – improving type with a strong run behind last time and drawn to stay covered up.

Each-Way Saver: The Bog Bank – has course form and conditions to suit, well drawn for stalking ride.