Pace Forecast: Weak
Pace Angles: Present Fair and Flemen’s Tipple look most likely to go forward, but a steady gallop is expected, which may play into the hands of strong finishers.
Draw Angles: Not relevant over hurdles.


—

Strongest Contenders

HAPPY INDEX (10/10) – Proven over the trip, on the ground, and is thriving under Olly Murphy (21% strike rate with stayers). She stays well, handles all types of going, and remains in top form after a neck second at Perth. Has tactical flexibility and the best recent form.

LUNE DE LA MER (8/10) – Reliable and consistent under rules, though better at 2½m. He has placed on both recent hurdles and chase starts. Slight concern over finishing power at this longer trip under a weak pace, but conditions suit.

TANGO THEATRE (IRE) (7/10) – Recent Kilbeggan second a return to form after a string of poor efforts. Strong stayer, but John McConnell’s UK runners are out of form and this 10yo has lacked consistency. Could be suited by the expected pace.


—

Main Dangers

PRESENT FAIR (6/10) – Bangor winner in April, but weakened badly last time and stays shorter than this. Has had wind surgery. A front-runner who might not enjoy the weak gallop if pressed early.

FLEMEN’S TIPPLE (5/10) – Non-winner over hurdles but fair recent form in small fields. Stays the trip and handles the ground. Rarely wins and often places – each-way possibilities only in a bigger field.

BAHTIYAR (FR) (2/10) – Poor form and stamina stretched at this trip. Poor run last time, questionable temperament, and trainer lacks winners at this level.


—

Temperament / Suitability & Profile Flags

HAPPY INDEX is proven and in peak form.

LUNE DE LA MER and TANGO THEATRE are reliable types with stamina, albeit less progressive.

PRESENT FAIR may go too hard early under pressure.

BAHTIYAR and FLEMEN’S TIPPLE are modest and have questions to answer.


Ratings out of 10

Horse Suitability Rating

Happy Index 10
Lune De La Mer 8
Tango Theatre 7
Present Fair 6
Flemen’s Tipple 5
Bahtiyar 2



—

Trends / Trainer Notes

Olly Murphy has a strong record in summer staying handicaps.

McConnell’s UK strike rate is low recently – caution with Tango Theatre.

Previous winners of this race include 7–8-year-olds off similar marks to Happy Index and Lune De La Mer.



—

Private Tissue Estimate

Happy Index – 15/8

Lune De La Mer – 7/2

Tango Theatre – 9/2

Present Fair – 13/2

Flemen’s Tipple – 10/1

Bahtiyar – 25/1



—

Summary

This is a weak race in depth, likely run at a modest pace, where tactical positioning and proven stamina are key. Happy Index ticks all the right boxes – form, fitness, suitability, trainer confidence – and should take all the beating. Lune De La Mer is the consistent danger if the pace doesn’t blunt his stamina. Tango Theatre is interesting if building on his Kilbeggan second but lacks recent consistency.


—

Smart Play

Win Bet: Happy Index – Proven, in-form, reliable and still improving.
Each Way Saver (if 3 places offered): Lune De La Mer – Consistent and can figure late under a positive ride.